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Severe March 1st Severe Weather Threat

Webber, SD for most of us east of the Apps the tor threat should be extremely low correct (maybe a quick spin up along the line) but if any discrete cells can pop out front of that line environment appears a little more favorable for a possible tor.... am I correct in what I'm seeing? Thanks
I would say so. I doubt we get much development ahead of the line and most of the tor threat would be the QLCS spinups. Just my thoughts though
 
I would say so. I doubt we get much development ahead of the line and most of the tor threat would be the QLCS spinups. Just my thoughts though
Which is a good thing.... clouds gonna temper our chances today but still should be a good wind threat tonight
 
Lots of wind damage reports coming out of Tennessee and Kentucky


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Bulk shear at 60-70kts definitely enough for Wake County by 9pm on the HRRR but it looks like the timing is going to suck, we'll be limited by night..not saying a tornado can't happen at night of course, just move this up 4 hours earlier and we'd be at a higher risk I'm sure. To me there's no indication at all for discrete cells or any development ahead of the line...so if there's a tor it's going to be an embedded, rain wrapped mess. We also won't get the wind TN and to the west will. Despite the HRRR soundings I'll have to see the daily trends to bite.
 
Yeah this is mainly a wind damage threat anyway, even if we had adequate destabilization. An isolated tornado embedded within a bookend vortex or near a bowing segment is still possible, and there probably will end up being 1-2 somewhere east of the apps.
 
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60kt 850mb winds with some 70kt winds along the NC/VA border....wind damage incoming this evening
 
Looks like an active day. Hate I can't keep up with things at work like I used to. Going to try to check in every once and a while, especially since it look like we're on the border here for some good storms and wind.
 
Tornado watch likely forthcoming for parts of northern Alabama, north-central Mississippi, and northwestern GA
Mesoscale Discussion 0241
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1008 AM CST Wed Mar 01 2017

Areas affected...Northern/central MS...southern middle/eastern
TN...northern/central AL...and northwestern GA

Concerning...Severe potential...Tornado Watch likely

Valid 011608Z - 011815Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent

SUMMARY...An increasing severe threat is expected over the next
several hours, with all severe hazards possible, including a few
tornadoes. New tornado watch issuance is likely by 18Z.

DISCUSSION...Mid-level southwesterly flow along a cold front in
middle/western TN has slowed the southeastward movement of the
front. A line of convection along/just ahead of the front has
displayed some strong to damaging wind threat over the past several
hours. The airmass across northern MS/AL ahead of the will continue
to destabilize through the afternoon even with partly to mostly
cloudy skies present. Steep mid-level lapse rates with an elevated
mixed layer are present on the 12Z Jackson, MS sounding and
sufficient low-level moisture across the area will support MLCAPE of
500-1000 J/kg this afternoon. 50-60 kt of effective bulk shear will
support supercell structures both within and ahead of the line,
particularly across northern MS into northern/central AL where
semi-discrete convection is already developing as of 16Z. Although
low-level flow is veered generally to southwesterly, sufficient
curvature in the 0-3 km layer will support effective SRH around
250-300 m2/s2, which suggests at least some tornado threat will
likely develop. Large hail will able be possible with the initial
discrete convection, with damaging winds becoming more probable with
time as thunderstorms congeal into a line.

..Gleason/Hart.. 03/01/2017


ATTN...WFO...MRX...FFC...OHX...BMX...HUN...MEG...JAN...

LAT...LON 33048725 32588875 32449003 32409092 32899121 33579106
34419052 34818974 35428794 35648655 35508550 35258414
34708403 33948531 33048725

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