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Pattern June 2022

jrips27 said:
Odds of widespread 100+ next week increasing by the day View attachment 119240View attachment 119239
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I hope this doesn't happen but it appears to be the outlier. The latest GFS is quite "cooler". These aren't percentiles but the modeled 18z temps.

gfs_T2m_us_25.png

gfs_T2m_us_29.png


gfs_T2m_us_33.png


gem_T2m_us_26.png


gem_T2m_us_30.png


The GEFS is pretty much inline with the operational. The Euro/EPS has been much higher so we'll have to watch it, but I noticed the last frame of the 18z EPS came in a bit cooler for Tues 18z.

12z
eps_T2m_us_26.png


18z

eps_T2m_us_25.png


We'll see but still a few days out. Gonna be hot regardless.
 
Iceagewhereartthou said:
I hope this doesn't happen but it appears to be the outlier. The latest GFS is quite "cooler". These aren't percentiles but the modeled 18z temps.

The GEFS is pretty much inline with the operational. The Euro/EPS has been much higher so we'll have to watch it, but I noticed the last frame of the 18z EPS came in a bit cooler for Tues 18z.

12z

18z
We'll see but still a few days out. Gonna be hot regardless.
Click to expand...

For what it’s worth, the GFS op came in much warmer at 0z. Very similar to the 12z EPS as far as I can tell. I think ensembles are certainly the way to go this far out. Haven’t been paying much attention to the GFS Ensemble candidly.

909861AA-0D45-4CCC-A71F-7D634E4D31B6.png
 
jrips27 said:
For what it’s worth, the GFS op came in much warmer at 0z. Very similar to the 12z EPS as far as I can tell. I think ensembles are certainly the way to go this far out. Haven’t been paying much attention to the GFS Ensemble candidly.

View attachment 119241
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I think somebody else (..Rain Cold) stated we tend to back off on the modeled temperatures as we get closer to the actual day. Kind of like the 7 day modeled snow storms. We saw this last year where models constantly showed 110 type readings but it never verified that hot. I would take 5-7 degrees off; which is still hot.
 
FallsLake said:
I think somebody else (..Rain Cold) stated we tend to back off on the modeled temperatures as we get closer to the actual day. Kind of like the 7 day modeled snow storms. We saw this last year where models constantly showed 110 type readings but it never verified that hot. I would take 5-7 degrees off; which is still hot.
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For sure. I'm certainly not looking for anything like 110 around here.
 
I always laugh at those extreme temperatures spit out in the summer by these models. I don't think people understand just how hard it is to get 100 degrees in the piedmont, upstate, Northern Georgia. You can squeak out those readings in the flat areas along the coastal plains here and there, but even then those temps are hard to come by. Next week has the makings of a major extreme heat wave and even then temps likely aren't going beyond 105 at most for the hottest areas in the southeast with temps hovering around the upper 90's most places else.

I will eat crow if we get those 105+ degree readings but averages, climo, and models doing the extreme thing says that odds are we get miserably hot, but not to that extreme. As others have said, it is the exact same thing when you get sub zero lows and highs in the teens in the southeast during an extreme artic outbreak on day 5-10 on models. Does it get very cold? Absolutely but temps usually moderate to low teens and single digit lows and around freezing for highs even during the most extreme cold spells in winter. I think the same thing happens here with the heat (99.9% of the time it does).
 
iGRXY said:
I always laugh at those extreme temperatures spit out in the summer by these models. I don't think people understand just how hard it is to get 100 degrees in the piedmont, upstate, Northern Georgia. You can squeak out those readings in the flat areas along the coastal plains here and there, but even then those temps are hard to come by. Next week has the makings of a major extreme heat wave and even then temps likely aren't going beyond 105 at most for the hottest areas in the southeast with temps hovering around the upper 90's most places else.

I will eat crow if we get those 105+ degree readings but averages, climo, and models doing the extreme thing says that odds are we get miserably hot, but not to that extreme. As others have said, it is the exact same thing when you get sub zero lows and highs in the teens in the southeast during an extreme artic outbreak on day 5-10 on models. Does it get very cold? Absolutely but temps usually moderate to low teens and single digit lows and around freezing for highs even during the most extreme cold spells in winter. I think the same thing happens here with the heat (99.9% of the time it does).
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Pretty good write up here.

Historic Heat Waves in the Carolinas

www.weather.gov
 
iGRXY said:
I always laugh at those extreme temperatures spit out in the summer by these models. I don't think people understand just how hard it is to get 100 degrees in the piedmont, upstate, Northern Georgia. You can squeak out those readings in the flat areas along the coastal plains here and there, but even then those temps are hard to come by. Next week has the makings of a major extreme heat wave and even then temps likely aren't going beyond 105 at most for the hottest areas in the southeast with temps hovering around the upper 90's most places else.

I will eat crow if we get those 105+ degree readings but averages, climo, and models doing the extreme thing says that odds are we get miserably hot, but not to that extreme. As others have said, it is the exact same thing when you get sub zero lows and highs in the teens in the southeast during an extreme artic outbreak on day 5-10 on models. Does it get very cold? Absolutely but temps usually moderate to low teens and single digit lows and around freezing for highs even during the most extreme cold spells in winter. I think the same thing happens here with the heat (99.9% of the time it does).
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difference here is the lack of surface dews. easier to get super hot super fast when there's limited cu field and the boundary layer is a solid 100mb-200mb thicker than it typically is this time of year. check this out-
1655386827664.png
this is the kind of sounding i would expect in a place like phoenix, not augusta lol.

i don't think you're misguided in your skeptical attitude in the slightest, and I think there's room for the longwave trough/various MCSs/general tom foolery to erode the heat potential on the periphery of the ridge- the 00z euro somewhat shows this- but because of the antecedent dry air mass i think we have a crack at some pretty gnarly temps.
 
ILMRoss said:
difference here is the lack of surface dews. easier to get super hot super fast when there's limited cu field and the boundary layer is a solid 100mb-200mb thicker than it typically is this time of year. check this out-
View attachment 119245
this is the kind of sounding i would expect in a place like phoenix, not augusta lol.

i don't think you're misguided in your skeptical attitude in the slightest, and I think there's room for the longwave trough/various MCSs/general tom foolery to erode the heat potential on the periphery of the ridge- the 00z euro somewhat shows this- but because of the antecedent dry air mass i think we have a crack at some pretty gnarly temps.
Click to expand...
I think the key is ultimately how low the dewpoints go this weekend. I’m not sure I’ve ever seen dewpoints in the 30s during June like what some of the models are spitting out right now. If that does verify then they probably wouldn’t be able to recover to help avoid seeing temps in the 102-106 range across the Piedmont that allows some spots to challenge all time records, otherwise we’re talking about our normal upper 90s with rising humidity type heat wave.
 
FallsLake said:
And like the modeled heat I wonder if the modeled dew points will verify for this weekend.

6z GFS for midday Sunday:
View attachment 119242

With highs in the low/mid 80s, the dew points would still make it refreshing.
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GFS usually has dew points lower than other weather models, but nonetheless a very dry airmass for mid-June.
 
jackendrickwx said:
Mountain convection much more robust today than yesterday
View attachment 119254
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I will be interested to see how that impacts temps around the area, definitely hit or miss. Temps in the upstate have soared toady, GSP already at 95 at 1pm, just one shy of the forecast high of 96. That will bust big time unless some clouds or rain can intervene. CLT at 93. Even CAE only at 92 but looks like some clouds in the area.
 
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