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Pattern Juggernaut June

GaWx said:
Not this crap again lol. I’m not falling for this BS. The models and JB were similar for last winter, which lead to about as bad busts as I’ve ever seen. With the FV3 now operational, all major models are solidly cold biased. There’s no reason to believe that the seasonal models like this one aren’t also cold biased, especially after their terrible performance for last winter. I’m wondering if the cold bias is largely due to global warming not being handled well.
Does anyone know what model this is?
I noticed that recently JB, like almost every year at this time, is hinting at an “interesting winter” for the E US. Surprise, surprise. He mentioned Modoki El Niño. His cold bias is even worse than the models’ bias. He’s such a laugh. I’m totally numb to his winter predictions.
I’m going with a mild winter as of now. Even though I prefer cold ones, mild winters don’t bother me much because the winter is always awesome compared to summers.
Click to expand...

I’ve thought that warming was causing the bias for years now. There’s a huge imbalance in the system.


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The spectacular weather streak is still kicking here. Today did push up toward 80 but this evening is a dry breeze under full moon. What a stretch run we had. Should be on backside of hp starting tommorow with sw humid flow returning. Good news is days will start getting shorter by this time next week.
 
pcbjr said:
Yes ... Charlie's pig model ...


~~~~~~~~~~
http://www.jamstec.go.jp/aplinfo/sintexf/e/seasonal/outlook.html
Click to expand...

Thanks, Phil. Indeed, this and the Euro were both solidly cold for last winter. I learned my lesson and consider this forecast to be near worthless.
By the way, why am I talking about next winter in the June thread? As much as I dislike summer wx, I don’t want to rush through any season. I can still enjoy summer and any season as long as my health remains good. Wx is far secondary. Besides, that’s what AC is for.
 
BHS1975 said:
I’ve thought that warming was causing the bias for years now. There’s a huge imbalance in the system.


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Click to expand...

Yep. It is going to be quite difficult to have a cooler than normal summer anytime soon (using 1981-2010 as a base) and having cooler than normal in any season is going to remain a challenge for the foreseeable future it appears. We’d better get used to it, folks. The world has changed and I’ve seen the light. The very weak solar cycles are hardly doing anything. Arctic temperatures are far above normal year in and year out. SSTs are hopelessly warmer than normal. Global warming is very real and powerful. Sad but true. Will JB ever see the light?
But GW/higher CO2 level isn’t as bad as the alarmists are making it out to be. For one thing, the Earth is greener with larger crops. And winter will always be much colder than summer.
Also, the idea of runaway GW actually verifying is very much up in the air imo due largely to unmodeled negative feedback that could easily come into play to slow down or stop the warming at some point.
 
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@Brent LOOKS LIKE YOU MAY GET A SLIGHT BREEZE

Capture.JPG
SPC AC 160146

Day 1 Convective Outlook AMEND 1
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0846 PM CDT Sat Jun 15 2019

Valid 160130Z - 161200Z

...THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CENTERED OVER
WEST-CENTRAL OKLAHOMA...AND PARTS OF NORTHWEST TEXAS...

UPGRADED TO MODERATE RISK FOR SIGNIFICANT DAMAGING WINDS INTO
OKLAHOMA

...SUMMARY...
Numerous storms capable of damaging wind and hail will spread out of
northwest Texas and into Oklahoma. A tornado remains possible from
Indiana into far southern Ohio, while damaging winds remain possible
from eastern Iowa across parts of northern Illinois this evening.

...Oklahoma and northwest Texas upgrade...
Several stations in northwest TX have measured severe winds in
excess of 80 mph as an MCS takes shape. The 00Z OUN sounding shows a
very unstable profile with steep lapse rates aloft and a deep moist
layer. Although shear profiles are relatively weak, this forward
propagating MCS is expected to produce widespread severe wind gusts,
with areas of significant damage possible.

...Central Indiana into southwest Ohio...
At least two tornadic supercells produced damage across Indiana
earlier this evening in association with a midlevel vort max
interacting with the nose of an instability plume. Radar continues
to show supercells, and a threat of tornadoes continues across the
tornado watch area. Low level shear remains favorable from Indiana
into southwest OH with 0-1 SRH of 200-300 m2/s2, with the most
unstable air over southern Indiana. Aside from a tornado or two, a
damaging wind threat will persist given favorable westerly winds as
storms traverse northern KY into southern OH.

...Eastern Texas Panhandle into Oklahoma...
A complex of severe storms is gradually shifting east across the TX
Panhandle with large hail and areas of damaging wind. The air mass
east of this complex is very moist and unstable, with low 70s F
dewpoints beneath 500 mb temperatures at or below -10 C. Meanwhile,
visible imagery shows TCU over northwest OK near a weak boundary
which is acting as a warm front. With time, both the ongoing
activity and new storms along the warm front will likely increase in
coverage, and will overturn the unstable air mass over OK. While
shear profiles are weak, the convective system will be supported
mainly by propagation, and aided by an increasing southwesterly
low-level jet this evening. But updrafts and downdrafts will be
strong owing to steep lapse rates aloft and PWAT to 1.50-1.60". The
result will be potentially damaging winds across the Enhanced Risk
area, along with hail.

...Southeast Iowa into northern Illinois...
An small MCS is currently over southeast IA, with new cells
developing along the front into northwest MO. Strong instability as
well as a continued feed of high theta-e out of the southwest will
support both a wind and hail threat this evening.

..Jewell.. 06/16/2019
 
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GaWx said:
Not this crap again lol. I’m not falling for this BS. The models and JB were similar for last winter, which lead to about as bad busts as I’ve ever seen. With the FV3 now operational, all major models are solidly cold biased. There’s no reason to believe that the seasonal models like this one aren’t also cold biased, especially after their terrible performance for last winter. I’m wondering if the cold bias is largely due to global warming not being handled well.
Does anyone know what model this is?
I noticed that recently JB, like almost every year at this time, is hinting at an “interesting winter” for the E US. Surprise, surprise. He mentioned Modoki El Niño. His cold bias is even worse than the models’ bias. He’s such a laugh. I’m totally numb to his winter predictions.
I’m going with a mild winter as of now. Even though I prefer cold ones, mild winters don’t bother me much because the winter is always awesome compared to summers.
Click to expand...

I agree with everything you said . I like JB mostly because he says what we “ want “ to hear . But truthfully, he’s pretty bad and like you said his cold bias is nauseating. I can’t imagine if he and Robert worked together.

I wouldn’t mind a milder winters. We will still have our chances regardless how the three month average turns out .


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Short range models Agree on 4000 jkg of SBcape tommorow with 1000 + jkg of Dcape, microbursts will likely be around tommorow
 
GaWx said:
Not this crap again lol. I’m not falling for this BS. The models and JB were similar for last winter, which lead to about as bad busts as I’ve ever seen. With the FV3 now operational, all major models are solidly cold biased. There’s no reason to believe that the seasonal models like this one aren’t also cold biased, especially after their terrible performance for last winter. I’m wondering if the cold bias is largely due to global warming not being handled well.
Does anyone know what model this is?
I noticed that recently JB, like almost every year at this time, is hinting at an “interesting winter” for the E US. Surprise, surprise. He mentioned Modoki El Niño. His cold bias is even worse than the models’ bias. He’s such a laugh. I’m totally numb to his winter predictions.
I’m going with a mild winter as of now. Even though I prefer cold ones, mild winters don’t bother me much because the winter is always awesome compared to summers.
Click to expand...
If you go warm for the SE winter, your going to be right 95% of the time and look like a genius!
 
Lofl!?
I can’t upload pictures now- says cannot be written to server, the site administrator will need to fix!??
 
Warnings breaking out a few counties north of Wilkes in south/West Virginia. BOOM. Shots fired. Daily activity will increase as the cap breaks. Boom Boom Boom.
 
Yet another stormy June day here now above normal for the month

Likely a couple spinups earlier to my west was a decent bow across the metro around 3 to 4
 
Here we go already! The 40-60% chance of storms, Mon-Wed, is now 0,40,0! Whomever said typical summer pattern is right, typically, it’s dry as pooping poop! ?
 
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