Don't y'all just love the weather. Lol.
***Ok kind of a longer post***
I for one don't think the trends are over yet at all, good or bad** it does concern me that the NAM (both 12km and 3km) virually has no support on how strong of a solution it's showing. Does it meannits wrong, no not all, but we know NAM loves to over do things as well. In fact it's usually awful at it. With that being said do I think it could be on to something absolutely. rgem will be a big help as well, but remember it still runs with a parent global, the CMC and can have a progressive bias as well. I really wish the euro had more support toward a NAM type solution to feel more comfortable about it. I will say the doc did trend toward the NAM a bit with more tilt and a slightly sooner phase there are 2 massive wild cards, IMHO here, 1. Where and when the phase happens (clearly the NAM is further west with that process then any other model) and 2. All the vorticity bombs/spikes/whatever in the western Atlantic. Those are going to force the SFC low out from the coast. So I expect them to trend less with time, yes. And I think that's been apparent with all models showing the SFC low closer to the coast.
In the end tonight's runs will be HUGE!! President Trump's HUGE voice. Lol will the NAM continue it's massive solution? (Both 12 and 3km) if it does then we might*** have a trendsetter OR if it starts to buckle and go toward the other models, well then I think we are in trouble for most outside coastal areas.
Map coming soon, no amounts yet to be honest.
***Ok kind of a longer post***
I for one don't think the trends are over yet at all, good or bad** it does concern me that the NAM (both 12km and 3km) virually has no support on how strong of a solution it's showing. Does it meannits wrong, no not all, but we know NAM loves to over do things as well. In fact it's usually awful at it. With that being said do I think it could be on to something absolutely. rgem will be a big help as well, but remember it still runs with a parent global, the CMC and can have a progressive bias as well. I really wish the euro had more support toward a NAM type solution to feel more comfortable about it. I will say the doc did trend toward the NAM a bit with more tilt and a slightly sooner phase there are 2 massive wild cards, IMHO here, 1. Where and when the phase happens (clearly the NAM is further west with that process then any other model) and 2. All the vorticity bombs/spikes/whatever in the western Atlantic. Those are going to force the SFC low out from the coast. So I expect them to trend less with time, yes. And I think that's been apparent with all models showing the SFC low closer to the coast.
In the end tonight's runs will be HUGE!! President Trump's HUGE voice. Lol will the NAM continue it's massive solution? (Both 12 and 3km) if it does then we might*** have a trendsetter OR if it starts to buckle and go toward the other models, well then I think we are in trouble for most outside coastal areas.
Map coming soon, no amounts yet to be honest.
