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January 11th-12th Southern Slider

SouthATLwx said:
I thought you had already decided to head out, lol.

It's a virga storm here. Nothing hitting the ground, but you can see the Mammatus clouds above.
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It was always kind of see what happens in the metro first ? but yeah I've always figured mostly the better snow certainly would not be here

The radar really doesn't seem that bad to me though already hearing of snow in Arlington
 
DarkKnight said:
Hope that is the case for us in Mississippi and Alabama. That would help us. Also looks to be a little more radar returns then predict even through some of it isn't reaching the ground yet.
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I think the dry air is helping us too because the whole narrative yesterday was it comes in at noon with warmer temps and starts as rain
 
FWIW:

Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Discussion 17

Severe weather, tornado, thunderstorm, fire weather, storm report, tornado watch, severe thunderstorm watch, mesoscale discussion, convective outlook products from the Storm Prediction Center.
www.spc.noaa.gov

Mesoscale Discussion 0017
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0934 AM CST Sun Jan 10 2021

Areas affected...Portions of central into north Texas

Concerning...Heavy snow

Valid 101534Z - 101930Z

SUMMARY...Pockets of 1 inch per hour snowfall will be possible in
portions of the central/north Texas. The highest rates will likely
diminish by mid-afternoon.

DISCUSSION...A band of moderate to heavy snow is ongoing in the the
I-20 vicinity west of DFW, arcing southeastward towards Waco. This
band is primarily being supported by 700 mb warm air advection with
further enhancement from a southeastward progressing shortwave
trough now centered in the Texas South Plains per water vapor
imagery. Into the afternoon, an area of favorable ascent within the
dendritic growth zone is expected to continue moving from the Hill
Country into central Texas. At least brief periods of 1 inch per
hour snowfall rates will be possible. Steep mid-level lapse rates
were observed on this morning's FWD sounding and visible satellite
shows convective turrets along the southern flank of the main
precipitation shield. A few locations may experience locally higher
snowfall rates where convective enhancement occurs. By late
afternoon, snowfall should diminish as 700 mb winds veer and the
main synoptic ascent shifts east.

With low-level dry air also being observed on the FWD sounding, as
well as the southeasterly track of the greatest ascent, the
northward extent of higher snowfall rates is uncertain. While the
DFW metro area is not likely to see the highest snowfall rates,
there will be a period during the early to mid afternoon where the
band of precipitation is able to cool/moisten the low levels and
produce a narrow window of snowfall that approaches 1 inch per hour.
 
Definitely gonna be a radar watcher today,hopefully moisture makes it a little north of guidance....for me anywsy
 
hrrr_ref_frzn_seus_18.png
Sleet on this HRRR run is very close to me.
 
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