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Pattern Jammin' January

Jimmy Hypocracy said:
One thing I am fairly confident of: Someone somewhere on this board is going to be digging out within the next 2-3 weeks
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Yeah, I agree SoutheastRidge will be digging out up there in IN. But how about someone in the SE?
deltadog03 said:
Paging Larry..... MJO forecast as Well have it swinging over to bad phases in long range. But caution about that. They did bad the last 2 weeks. Verification images included. 2 week then 1 week verification time images below.
View attachment 11018View attachment 11019View attachment 11020View attachment 11021
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Yeah, I see a few days being projected in the dreaded outside in phase 5, but the amp. is much lower and speed much faster vs late Dec. Then it scoots nicely to the left toward circle which I love to see. Hopefully, the GEFS idea of getting further left verifies as opposed to EPS circling back into 6.
 
Word on the MA forum was the FVTree was rain next weekend even for them..so there’s that
 
Arcc said:
H5 looks pretty good until interactions with the northern stream and a big time phase end it. The same thing happens with the next storm. As has been said a thousand times, that wont be modeled closely at all for 7 more days.
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agreed, and the 1st system, this upcoming weekend, the energy is trending away from each other. as you know and have seen.....euro will be interesting tonight to see if it's trend of separation continues.
 
deltadog03 said:
agreed, and the 1st system, this upcoming weekend, the energy is trending away from each other. as you know and have seen.....euro will be interesting tonight to see if it's trend of separation continues.
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I love seeing the uptick in the GEFS mean, with some snow even down in the GOM. That tells me more of the ensembles are seeing what we want to happen.
 
FV3 has a snow hit too for the Southeast. About the same timeframe that the Old GFS does. It’s a nice track of a low pressure for many on here to get a snow. A4BAD87D-3A6B-4A4B-996B-3F8568AE85B5.gif
 
The 0Z EPS has an absolutely beautiful -NAO that first gets established 1/23 and then strengthens and remains through the end of the run. Meanwhile, the -AO, which was already in existence earlier, strengthens to very strong levels late in the run.
 
icon_asnow_seus_61.png
FWIW, this was 0z Icon last night. It was trying hard.
 
06z Goof is running. Looks like the LP transition from just west of Atlanta @ hr 138. Over the upstate of SC on the next frame, then over the Delmarva @ hr 150. A bit more of a gradual NE turn rather than the abrupt one observed on the earlier run.

NOTE- I did not check heights or dynamics to see what's going on with the northern stream, but something seems to be nudging this just a smidge south of earlier guidance. Much of TN sees backside snow with this run.
 
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