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Tropical Invest 96L

NHC now says conditions will be unfavorable for additional development by early next week, but a tropical depression is still at least likely to form over the weekend.


A broad low pressure system located about 1100 miles west-southwest
of the Cabo Verde Islands is producing limited shower and
thunderstorm activity. Slow development of this system is expected
during the next few days while it moves west-northwestward at 10 to
15 mph, and a tropical depression is likely to form several hundred
miles east of the Lesser Antilles. Environmental conditions are now
forecast to become unfavorable for additional development by early
next week as the system approaches the Lesser Antilles.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...70 percent.
 
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So, either nothing or a strong hurricane. Just a bit of a spread on the models.
 
Euro looks to develop something for a time but I think it's a wave behind this

Don't take the HMON/HWRF too serious for an invest
 
Ethan80963 said:
I'm pretty new to this but how reliable is the HMON? Because it seems to have a situation pretty close to the HWRF.
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HMON is just as bad in many cases where a TC hasn't formed yet. Best way I could explain this without getting into the weeds & conflating the message is these models essentially assume a TC has already formed near initialization when that's far from reality and these errors propagate forward in time and grow exponentially.
 
Webberweather53 said:
HMON is just as bad in many cases where a TC hasn't formed yet. Best way I could explain this without getting into the weeds & conflating the message is these models essentially assume a TC has already formed near initialization when that's far from reality and these errors propagate forward in time and grow exponentially.
Click to expand...
Bingo! :cool:
 
If I may ... We can do well without a vision of or visit from Hurakán (God of the Storm and Wind) this year ...
 
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18z gonna be a dud for the gfs. However, the old gfs is looking stronger
(edit:nope old gfs is sill a dud)
 
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Looking at IR satellite it looks like it’s starting to develop but I’m not sure
 
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