Tropical Invest 95L

[Cary_Snow95]

The MDR is firing up early this year. This is an interesting one to watch.

 

[BHS1975]

The MDR is firing up early this year. This is an interesting one to watch.
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View attachment 85735

Yeap may not have the beefy ridging to save us this year.


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[Cary_Snow95]

12z GFS and Euro both coming in weaker. Will have to monitor convection trends the next 48hours to see where the vort Max sets up

 

[Cary_Snow95]

NHC has reduced Invest 95Ls odds of development to 20% within the next 5 days. Down from 40% yesterday. 10% chance within 48 hours

 

[Cary_Snow95]

Odds now are 10/10. Wave behind 95L might be next invest this week.

 

[Cary_Snow95]

95L has become better organized this afternoon and NHC has raised its chances to 30/20

 

[Snowfan]

 

[accu35]

Well CMC has 95L in the gulf

 

[Snowfan]

A broad area of low pressure associated with a tropical wave is
producing a small cluster of showers and thunderstorms over the
central tropical Atlantic Ocean. Some slow development is possible
through the end of the week while this system moves quickly westward
to west-northwestward at about 20 mph, likely reaching the Lesser
Antilles Wednesday night.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...40 percent.

 

[Brent]

Elsa is that you?

 

[accu35]

Elsa is that you?

Why yes it is

 

[Cary_Snow95]

Gfs and euro kill it by Thursday. HWRF amps it to 994 and rams into Hispaniola and shreds it

 

[SimeonNC]

I feel like a POS for being excited about the idea of this developing.

 

[Cary_Snow95]

I feel like a POS for being excited about the idea of this developing.

Most modeling now takes it south of the islands before dissipating it. I think a brief TD designation before it dissipating in the Caribbean is realistic. Wave behind it (soon to be 97L) has more support and looks to be very far south. It’s fast forward movement along with the trade winds in the Caribbean will be hard for it to fight.

 

[Henry2326]