Tropical TS Mindy

[Snowfan]

The lemon in the Southwestern Carribean has now been designated as a invest.

An area of low pressure is producing some disorganized shower
activity over the southwestern Caribbean Sea. Some slow development
of this system is possible over the next couple of days as it moves
westward or west-northwestward at 5 to 10 mph toward Central
America. Thereafter, land interaction with Central America and the
Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico will likely limit further development of
this system. Regardless of development, heavy rains are possible
across portions of Central America and the Yucatan Peninsula late
this week and this weekend.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.

 

[accu35]

So far convection is firing

 

[Cadi40]

I hereby propose that the word "east" be banned in this thread.

 

[accu35]

I hereby propose that the word "east" be banned in this thread.

Cmon now don't be that way

 

[Arcc]

I hereby propose that the word "east" be banned in this thread.

Fine by me.

I perceive long term motion will be 060 at 4 knots.

 

[Henry2326]

8:00 am NHC

 

[Henry2326]

12z Icon joined CMC with something bouncing around the gulf.

 

[Henry2326]

 

[Henry2326]

18z GFS comes along with CMC and ICON.

 

[accu35]

Models seems to be trying 91L in the gulf.

 

[Henry2326]

 

[Henry2326]

This is 00z CMC, that has trended this for awhile. The issue will be water if it happens. It meanders along the LA for 24 hours or longer,

12z ICON also dumping rain in the same area.

12z GFS got nothing.

Would add salt to the wound.....literally.

 

[SD]

Euro gets a little interesting with this

 

[Henry2326]

18z GFS

 

[SD]

Looks like most of the 0z/6z models did something with this

 

[Henry2326]

06z GFS.....

 

[SD]

Probably going to really need to watch this system as it has some potential to be a gulf coast late bloomer. Most models want to cut off a weak upper level system to its north this weekend. How this wave and any upper level feature interact and resolve themselves probably won't be ironed out for a few days.

 

[SD]

Icon doesn't dig this out of the gulf and whatever system is there would likely slowly drift west toward south Texas as the upper ridge builds east from the SW.

Both the icon and the NAM did place a little more emphasis on the area off the coast of Honduras this morning. Still probably a few days to iron this one out

 

[SD]

Gfs has a likely sheared lopsided system near Nola

 

[SD]

Euro and gfs are pretty close with this now on both track and intensity