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Tropical TS Bertha

Snowfan

Snowfan

El Nina stinks
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A new invest has been designated.
000
ABNT20 KNHC 261236
TWOAT

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 AM EDT Tue May 26 2020

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Special Tropical Weather Outlook issued to discuss the broad trough
of low pressure extending across central Florida and the adjacent
Atlantic waters.

Showers and thunderstorms located over extreme northeastern
Florida, adjacent Atlantic waters, and the northwestern Bahamas are
associated with an elongated surface trough interacting with an
upper-level disturbance. Although a weak surface low has formed
within the trough near Orlando, Florida, little if any further
development of this system is expected due to land interaction,
strong upper-level winds, and an abundance of dry air in the
mid-levels of the atmosphere. The broad disturbance is forecast to
move northward today and Wednesday, remaining inland or near the
coasts of northeastern Florida and Georgia.

Regardless of development, heavy rainfall could cause flash
flooding over portions of coastal sections of northeastern Florida
and Georgia today, and over portions of the Carolinas on Tuesday
and Wednesday. Gusty winds could also produce rough marine
conditions and life-threatening surf and rip currents along the
coasts of northeastern Florida, Georgia, and the Carolinas through
Wednesday.

For additional information, see products from your local National
Weather Service office. The next Special Tropical Weather Outlook
on this system will be issued by 9 PM EDT today, or earlier if
necessary.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.

$$
Forecaster Stewart
Click to expand...
 
782
ABNT20 KNHC 262050
TWOAT

Special Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
450 PM EDT Tue May 26 2020

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Special Tropical Weather Outlook issued to discuss the area of low
pressure near the northeast Florida coast.

An elongated area of low pressure located near the northeast Florida
coast and an associated upper-level disturbance are producing a
large area of showers and thunderstorms extending from portions of
Florida and coastal Georgia eastward for a few hundred miles over
the Atlantic waters. Some development of this system is possible
through early Wednesday if it remains offshore while moving slowly
northward near the northeastern Florida and Georgia coasts. The low
is expected to move well inland over the southeast U.S. by late
Wednesday, which should end any chance of tropical cyclone
formation.

Regardless of development, heavy rainfall could cause flash
flooding over portions of coastal sections of northeastern Florida
and Georgia through tonight, and over portions of the Carolinas on
Wednesday. Gusty winds could also produce rough marine conditions
and life-threatening surf and rip currents along the coasts of
northeastern Florida, Georgia, and the Carolinas through Wednesday.

For additional information, see products from your local National
Weather Service office. The next Special Tropical Weather Outlook
on this system will be issued by 3 AM EDT Wednesday, or earlier if
necessary.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...30 percent.

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi
Click to expand...
 
so we gonna talk about this in here or in May thread, latest 3K Nam gives MBY right at 3" that's kinda sucks....any chance this thing makes TD or TS status....kinda thinking not but latest runs kinda look close, still I will be on the east side of it and that training band the Nam 3k has is interesting....
 
Ha, I was talking with my mom about how the rain we were going through I think came from some tropical mischief that hadn't fully formed, and we see the invest designated later today.
 
NAM had a big change on the 6z run. The 00z run barely/didn’t develop but the 6z run had it pretty close if not tropical storm status.
00z
49CD9B43-AA73-464F-BD3C-5077845094AB.gif
06z
C789A11B-A062-4981-9DB2-FADC88637AD2.gif
 
Based on tropical tidbits the sustained winds are 30kt right now with 40kt gusts and central pressure at 1009. Not far from tropical storm status.
 
The next update should be very interesting to say the least
 
Here’s the 9am update. Went from 30% last update to 70% this update. IMO they will probably up it to a tropical storm soon. They note the buoys show ts force winds and say if they continue they will up it to a ts. We’ll see
D7C261D5-8137-41F9-9F06-959983423888.jpegCDED142A-3DCE-494A-BF8D-85CC02927029.jpeg
 
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