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Tropical Invest 91L

Snowfan

Snowfan

When NW trend?
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It just got designated. Some of the models are developing this in the Bay of Campeche.
 
Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 AM EDT Sat Jun 1 2019

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

1. A broad area of low pressure accompanied by cloudiness and showers
is centered near the west coast of the Yucatan Peninsula. The low
is forecast to move westward to west-northwestward over the southern
Bay of Campeche during the weekend and near the east coast of Mexico
early next week. Gradual development of this system is possible as
long as it remains over water, and a tropical depression could form
early next week. Regardless of development, the disturbance will
likely produce heavy rainfall over portions of southern and
southeastern Mexico during the next few days.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...40 percent.
 
000
ABNT20 KNHC 011132
TWOAT

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 AM EDT Sat Jun 1 2019

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

A broad area of low pressure located over the southern Bay of
Campeche is producing disorganized showers and thunderstorms. The
low is forecast to move westward to west-northwestward across the
southern Bay of Campeche toward the east coast of Mexico during the
next few days. If the system remains over water, a tropical
depression could form before it moves inland early next week.
Regardless of development, the disturbance will likely produce heavy
rainfall over portions of southern and southeastern Mexico during
the next few days.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...50 percent.
Click to expand...
 
Not saying it will happen, but the CMC and Icon is further north.
 
Snowfan said:
GFS does not form anything.
Click to expand...

No, but it slings the tropical moisture into the SE, with high PWATs, this would likely increase shower/T-storms across much of the SE, high PWATs and t-storms can create such big amounts of rain
 
Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 PM EDT Sat Jun 1 2019

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Recent satellite data indicate that circulation of a low pressure
system located over the southern Bay of Campeche has become a little
better defined today. However, the associated showers and
thunderstorms remain disorganized. This system is expected to move
slowly west-northwestward toward the coast of Mexico, and it could
become a tropical cyclone before it moves inland early next week.
Regardless of development, the disturbance will likely produce heavy
rainfall over portions of southern and eastern Mexico during the
next few days. An Air Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft is
scheduled to investigate the disturbance on Sunday, if necessary.
Interests along the Gulf coast of Mexico should monitor the progress
of this system.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...60 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...60 percent.

$$
 
Tarheel1 said:
Yeah, the rich get richer, or the flooded get more flooded! Wish we could get some of that in the desert SE!☹️
Click to expand...

That would get caught up in the flow into the SE, well the best moisture would anyways since the right quadrant of TCs always have the best synoptic scale forcing for ascent
 
769
ABNT20 KNHC 012334
TWOAT

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 PM EDT Sat Jun 1 2019

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

A low pressure system located over the southern Bay of Campeche
continues to produce disorganized shower and thunderstorm activity.
This system is expected to move slowly west-northwestward toward the
coast of Mexico, and it could become a tropical cyclone before it
moves inland early next week. Regardless of development, the
disturbance will likely produce heavy rainfall over portions of
southern and eastern Mexico during the next few days. An Air Force
Reserve reconnaissance aircraft is scheduled to investigate the
disturbance on Sunday, if necessary. Interests along the Gulf coast
of Mexico should monitor the progress of this system.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...60 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...60 percent.

$$
Forecaster Beven
Click to expand...
 
Myfrotho704_ said:
That would get caught up in the flow into the SE, well the best moisture would anyways since the right quadrant of TCs always have the best synoptic scale forcing for ascent
Click to expand...

Yeah i wouldnt expect much here if it did track into Louisiana the east side will always be favored

Now how far east remains to be seen of course but at the least it would increase the diurnal storms
 
000
ABNT20 KNHC 021117
TWOAT

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 AM EDT Sun Jun 2 2019

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

A low pressure system located over the southern Bay of Campeche has
changed little in organization since yesterday. This system is
expected to move slowly northwestward toward the coast of Mexico,
and it could become a tropical cyclone before it moves inland in a
day or two. Regardless of development, the disturbance will likely
produce heavy rainfall over portions of southern and eastern Mexico
during the next few days. An Air Force Reserve reconnaissance
aircraft is scheduled to investigate the disturbance later today, if
necessary. Interests along the Gulf coast of Mexico should monitor
the progress of this system.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...60 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...60 percent.
Click to expand...
 
Recon was cancelled today but there are two more missions scheduled.
SUSPECT AREA (BAY OF CAMPECHE)
FLIGHT ONE - TEAL 72 FLIGHT TWO - TEAL 75
A. 03/1830Z A. 04/0530Z,1130Z
B. AFXXX 01BBA INVEST B. AFXXX 0202A CYCLONE
C. 03/1530Z C. 04/0215Z
D. 20.0N 95.0W D. 21.0N 96.5W
E. 03/1800Z TO 03/2300Z E. 04/0500Z TO 04/1130Z
F. SFC TO 10,000 FT F. SFC TO 10,000 FT

2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY: CONTINUE 6-HRLY FIXES IF SYSTEM
DEVELOPS AND REMAINS A THREAT.
3. REMARK: THE MISSIONS TASKED IN TCPOD 19-004 WERE CANCELED BY
NHC AT 02/1240Z
 
EURO really washes this system out over the Mississippi River areas that don’t need rain. Sounds about right. Dry and hot east in Florida.
 
000
ABNT20 KNHC 021717
TWOAT

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 PM EDT Sun Jun 2 2019

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

A broad area of low pressure is producing disorganized showers and
thunderstorms over the Bay of Campeche. This system is expected to
move slowly northwestward toward the coast of Mexico, and it could
become a tropical cyclone before it moves inland in a day or two.
Regardless of development, the disturbance will likely produce heavy
rainfall over portions of southern and eastern Mexico during the
next few days. An Air Force Reserve reconnaissance mission scheduled
for this afternoon has been canceled, however another aircraft will
investigate the disturbance tomorrow afternoon, if necessary.
Interests along the Gulf coast of Mexico should monitor the progress
of this system.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...60 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...60 percent.

$$
Forecaster Zelinsk
Click to expand...
 
000
ABNT20 KNHC 022307
TWOAT

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 PM EDT Sun Jun 2 2019

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Showers and thunderstorms associated with a broad area of low
pressure over the Bay of Campeche remain disorganized. This system
is expected to move slowly northwestward toward the coast of Mexico,
and may become a tropical cyclone before it moves inland in a day or
two. Regardless of development, the disturbance will likely produce
heavy rainfall over portions of southern and eastern Mexico during
the next few days. An Air Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft will
investigate the disturbance Monday afternoon, if necessary.
Interests along the Gulf coast of Mexico should monitor the progress
of this system.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...60 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...60 percent.

$$
Forecaster Latto/Beven
Click to expand...
 
000
ABNT20 KNHC 031138
TWOAT

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 AM EDT Mon Jun 3 2019

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

A broad area of low pressure is producing disorganized shower and
thunderstorm activity over the Bay of Campeche. This system is
expected to move slowly northwestward toward the northeastern coast
of Mexico, and could become a tropical cyclone before it moves
inland in a day or two. Regardless of development, the disturbance
will likely produce heavy rainfall over portions of southern and
eastern Mexico during the next few days. An Air Force Reserve
reconnaissance aircraft will investigate the disturbance this
afternoon, if necessary. Interests along the Gulf coast of Mexico
should monitor the progress of this system.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...60 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...60 percent.
Click to expand...
 
Recon has been cancelled for today.
000
NOUS42 KNHC 031417
REPRPD
WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
1015 AM EDT MON 03 JUNE 2019
SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)
VALID 04/1100Z TO 05/1100Z JUNE 2019
TCPOD NUMBER.....19-006

I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. SUSPECT AREA (BAY OF CAMPECHE)
FLIGHT ONE - TEAL 72 FLIGHT TWO - TEAL 75
A. 04/1900Z A. 05/0530Z,1130Z
B. AFXXX 01BBA INVEST B. AFXXX 0202A CYCLONE
C. 04/1545Z C. 05/0230Z
D. 23.0N 96.5W D. 24.5N 97.0W
E. 04/1830Z TO 04/2330Z E. 05/0500Z TO 05/1130Z
F. SFC TO 10,000 FT F. SFC TO 10,000 FT

2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY: CONTINUE 6-HRLY FIXES IF SYSTEM
DEVELOPS AND REMAINS A THREAT.
3. REMARK: THE MISSIONS TASKED IN TCPOD 19-005 WERE CANCELED BY
NHC AT 03/1215Z.
Click to expand...
 
000
ABNT20 KNHC 031727
TWOAT

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 PM EDT Mon Jun 3 2019

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Showers and thunderstorms associated with a broad area of low
pressure located over the Bay of Campeche have become a little
better organized since yesterday. However, recent satellite-based
wind data indicate that the circulation of the low is elongated and
poorly defined. This system is expected to move slowly northwestward
toward the northeastern coast of Mexico, and could become a tropical
cyclone before it moves inland in a day or two. Regardless of
development, the disturbance will likely produce heavy rainfall over
portions of southern and eastern Mexico during the next few days.
Heavy rainfall is also likely to spread over southeastern Texas and
Louisiana through Thursday. The Air Force Reserve reconnaissance
mission for this afternoon has been canceled, however another
aircraft has been scheduled to investigate the disturbance tomorrow,
if necessary. Interests along the Gulf coast of Mexico should
monitor the progress of this system.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...60 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...60 percent.

$$
Forecaster Zelinsky
Click to expand...
 
000
ABNT20 KNHC 032322
TWOAT

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 PM EDT Mon Jun 3 2019

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Showers and thunderstorms associated with a broad area of low
pressure located over the Bay of Campeche have changed little in
organization during the last several hours. This system is expected
to move slowly northwestward toward the northeastern coast of
Mexico, and it could become a tropical cyclone before moving inland
in about a day. Regardless of development, the disturbance will
likely produce heavy rainfall over portions of southern and eastern
Mexico during the next few days. Heavy rainfall is also likely to
spread over southeastern Texas and Louisiana through Thursday. An
Air Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft is scheduled to
investigate the disturbance tomorrow, if necessary. Interests along
the Gulf coast of Mexico should monitor the progress of this system.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...60 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...60 percent.

$$
Forecaster Beven
Click to expand...
 
Chances for development have dropped for the first time

Showers and thunderstorms associated with a broad area of low
pressure located over southwestern Gulf of Mexico are currently
disorganized. This system is expected to move slowly northwestward
toward the northeastern coast of Mexico, and it could become a
tropical cyclone before moving inland later today or tonight.
Regardless of development, the disturbance will likely produce heavy
rainfall over portions of southern and eastern Mexico during the
next few days. Heavy rainfall is also likely to spread over
southeastern Texas and Louisiana through Thursday. An Air Force
Reserve reconnaissance aircraft is scheduled to investigate the
disturbance later today, if necessary. Interests along the Gulf
coast of Mexico should monitor the progress of this system.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...50 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...50 percent.
 
Looks better inland and out of the TWO lol1000x1000.jpg

Also a closed circulation SW of Houston
 
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