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Tropical Hurricane Lee

recon_AF306-0213A-LEE_dropsonde4_20230907-2337.png

207 mph at 917 mb. :eek:
 
weather bubba said:
Levi Cowan just posted on Twitter that this is one of the most rapidly intensifying hurricanes in the Atlantic he has ever seen. For a storm to go from Cat 1 to Cat 5 in a day is remarkable.
Click to expand...

This storm had record-breaking potential for the past few days in terms of intensification. Hurricane Lee also has had a shot to become the longest lasting major hurricane, category 4, and category 5. It's only over the past day that some of the hurricane models are trending in terms of intensification towards the top ten Atlantic Hurricanes.

All this during an El Nino. And look where it's doing it? The middle of the Atlantic Basin. The ACE from Lee and Margot is going to be pretty crazy.
 
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314
URNT15 KNHC 080126
AF306 0213A LEE HDOB 32 20230908
011800 1731N 05232W 6967 03117 //// +114 //// 049069 073 061 000 01
011830 1730N 05230W 6966 03114 //// +112 //// 048070 070 062 000 01
011900 1729N 05229W 6967 03104 //// +104 //// 046071 073 063 000 01
011930 1728N 05228W 6966 03100 //// +103 //// 046074 075 064 001 01
012000 1727N 05227W 6969 03089 //// +103 //// 050079 080 067 000 01
012030 1726N 05225W 6967 03081 //// +091 //// 050081 082 070 002 01
012100 1725N 05224W 6965 03072 //// +092 //// 049082 084 074 001 01
012130 1724N 05223W 6965 03055 //// +085 //// 051089 091 076 004 01
012200 1723N 05222W 6969 03036 //// +084 //// 054090 091 079 002 01
012230 1722N 05221W 6974 03010 //// +098 //// 052093 096 081 001 01
012300 1720N 05219W 6967 02999 //// +093 //// 051098 101 084 015 01
012330 1720N 05218W 6967 02975 //// +078 //// 055106 111 089 028 01
012400 1719N 05217W 6972 02947 //// +074 //// 055114 117 095 018 01
012430 1718N 05216W 6955 02935 //// +077 //// 052122 125 101 015 01
012500 1717N 05215W 6973 02869 //// +065 //// 048130 134 113 040 01
012530 1716N 05214W 6967 02823 //// +073 //// 049141 145 128 078 01
012600 1715N 05213W 6922 02795 //// +094 //// 051133 144 152 055 01
012630 1714N 05212W 7146 02440 //// +127 //// 053102 119 157 035 01
012700 1713N 05211W 7031 02522 //// +196 //// 070067 092 143 000 01
012730 1712N 05210W 6953 02617 //// +262 //// 104030 048 082 000 01
$$
;
Click to expand...
145 kt FL, 157 kt SFMR. NW Eyewall. ?
 
Snowfan said:
145 kt FL, 157 kt SFMR. NW Eyewall. ?
Click to expand...

This 157Kt (180MPH) wind gust was found in a heavy band with rainfall rates of 3.07" an hour. Multiple 165MPH winds found around the storm. This is absolutely a category 5.

Also, the eye continues to shrink on each IR frame, so the winds could become more impressive on the next pass. Recon is getting battered right now.
 
Downeastnc said:
Probably gust? Since flight levels are not that high.
Click to expand...
Dropsonde found flight level winds of 158 knots. I'm thinking that 157 knot surface reading may not have been a fluke.

Lee (2023) - Sonde - Atlantic AF Miss. 2 - Tropical Atlantic

View decoded Dropsonde Observations (DROP) available for Lee in 2023 from Air Force mission 2 in the North Atlantic basin.
tropicalatlantic.com

930Mbs with 23MPH winds.

Lee (2023) - Sonde - Atlantic AF Miss. 2 - Tropical Atlantic

View decoded Dropsonde Observations (DROP) available for Lee in 2023 from Air Force mission 2 in the North Atlantic basin.
tropicalatlantic.com
 
SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...17.3N 52.4W
ABOUT 705 MI...1135 KM E OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...160 MPH...260 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 295 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...928 MB...27.41 INCHES

FORECAST VALID 08/1200Z 18.1N 54.0W
MAX WIND 155 KT...GUSTS 190 KT.
64 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 30NW.
50 KT... 60NE 40SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT...120NE 110SE 60SW 90NW.
Click to expand...
 
and there are no signs of an imminent eyewall replacement.
In fact, based on guidance from UW-CIMSS, the probability of a
secondary eyewall formation during the next 24 hours is well below
climatology.
Click to expand...

Amazingly, the 1800 UTC HAFS-A and -B runs show a peak
intensity between 170-180 kt, but that's getting into rarefied air.
The NHC forecast will be adjusted accordingly if those solutions
begin looking like a more distinct possibility
Click to expand...


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