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Tropical Hurricane Lee

One issue I can already see from this EURO run is that it initializes the storm way too weak at 993mb. I think we can all look and agree right now that this is likely a major hurricane at this point.
 
Big difference on the trough over the GL at Hr 140 ish when comparing the euro/ukmet camp to the gfs. GFS to positive tilt
 
Brick Tamland said:
Really hope this stays out to sea. This is going to be a monster. I think we're seeing it becoming more and more the norm for these hurricanes to explode quickly in our current climate. Scary.
Click to expand...

Agreed. I think we'll probably know by Saturday or Sunday if this truly stays out to sea. Only a few adjustments in the trough could taken Lee horrifyingly close to New England.
 
UW - CIMSS
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 9.1
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 07 SEP 2023 Time : 191020 UTC
Lat : 16:39:35 N Lon : 50:53:23 W


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
5.6 / 957.7mb/104.6kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
5.6 5.8 6.6

Estimated radius of max. wind based on IR : 19 km

Center Temp : +18.4C Cloud Region Temp : -69.7C

Scene Type : EYE

Subtropical Adjustment : OFF

Extratropical Adjustment : OFF

Positioning Method : ARCHER POSITIONING
 
Euro 12z today another bit west of last night

ecmwf_mslp_pcpn_watl_57.png



last night

ecmwf_mslp_pcpn_watl_59.png
 
ForsythSnow said:
Forecast now maxes out at 165 mph too this advisory. Have to see if the HAFS is right in 24 hours but I'm not sure a 200 mph storm will happen.
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It's definitely gonna be hard in that area. Irma topped out at 180 in a similar spot. Dorian was 185 in the Bahamas. The others were 185-190 in the Caribbean or the Gulf
 
We now have Major Hurricane Lee! Max winds 130MPH.

980
WTNT33 KNHC 072051
TCPAT3

BULLETIN
Hurricane Lee Advisory Number 10
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132023
500 PM AST Thu Sep 07 2023

...LEE NOW A CATEGORY 4 HURRICANE...
...RIP CURRENTS AND HAZARDOUS SURF WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE NORTHERN
CARIBBEAN FRIDAY AND BEGIN AFFECTING THE MAINLAND U.S. BY SUNDAY...


SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...16.9N 51.3W
ABOUT 780 MI...1260 KM E OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...130 MPH...215 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 295 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...953 MB...28.15 INCHES

Remnants of Chris Public Advisory

www.nhc.noaa.gov
 
ILMRoss said:
probably still goes ots but emergency management personnel from about Connecticut-eastward have reason to be absolutely terrified; 12 foot surge going up providence bay is a real thing on the table
Click to expand...

NHC did put this at the end of the discussion

There is uncertainty in any northward turn of Lee beginning early
next week, but it is too soon to speculate about specific potential
impacts a week or more out.
 
Brent said:
NHC did put this at the end of the discussion

There is uncertainty in any northward turn of Lee beginning early
next week, but it is too soon to speculate about specific potential
impacts a week or more out.
Click to expand...
I think it turning north is a given based on modeling right now. The big question is how long will Margot block it from being able to turn east any. The EURO has it blocking off until it’s too late and we see go very close to Cape Cod and then up into Maine.
 
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