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Tropical TS Jerry

11:00 am discussion.....

Satellite images indicate that Jerry continues to become better
organized, with a large curved band wrapping around the center.
While microwave data does not show an inner core yet, the overall
satellite presentation has improved during the past several hours.
The initial wind speed is set to 45 kt, which closely matches
almost all of the available Dvorak estimates and a just-arrived
ASCAT-C scatterometer pass.

Further intensification of Jerry is expected during the next day or
two as the cyclone moves over very warm waters within light shear.
While this type of environment could support even more
strengthening than forecast, there is some substantial dry air
around the cyclone, which is forecast to limit the intensification
rates for now. This forecast leans heavier on the regional
hurricane models HWRF, HMON and COAMPS-TC, which all show a weaker
cyclone than the statistical/dynamical LGEM and SHIPS models.
Most of the guidance shows increasing shear in a couple of days, and
the shear could become somewhat strong by next week. While little
change in strength is indicated beyond Friday, this usually doesn't
happen in reality, and further changes will be necessary as the
environmental factors become more clear.

The initial motion continues to be west-northwestward, or 290/12
kt. The subtropical ridge to the north should steer Jerry at a
faster forward speed for the next couple of days. Afterward, a
northwest to north-northwestward turn, influenced by a weakness in
the aforementioned ridge left behind by Humberto, is expected. The
NHC track forecast is basically an update from the previous advisory
and lies on the left side of the guidance suite, nearest the ECMWF
model and the corrected-consensus forecasts.
 
GaWx said:
Looking again at satellite loops, I think he’s degraded somewhat the last couple of hours though I wouldn’t bet the ranch on that as satellite pics can be deceiving. So, if he has degraded some, I wonder if that’s the reason he may be ~20 miles S of the NHC/model consensus. Does the steering for a weaker system in that area have less of a north component?
Click to expand...

In retrospect, let’s just say this was not one of my better posts! :p
 
He's running with the theory and possibility that the tail of the front gets dropped and Jerry heads west.....


 
I'm starting to wonder if the LLC shifted south to the MLC and that's why we are seeing such a large boom of cold tops in that general location.
 
Ive yet see a storm this year that was modeled ots to end up west. Pretty rare I’m thinking.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
 
Florence and Matthew (although Matthew was closer before it started shifting west). I'd say this probably remains OTS but it's worth keeping a look-see for at least the next 2-3 days on trends.
 
GaWx said:
Although some 2/3 or so of the 0Z Euro ens members still don't threaten the CONUS (most recurve hundreds of miles offshore though unfortunately many of these do threaten or even hit Bermuda), just over 25% do hit or are about to hit the CONUS. I count 6 in FL (5 pen., 1 pan.), ~3 in TX, one each in NC/SC/GA/LA, and one headed to ~AL. So, 13 hit and 1 is about to hit at the end of the run vs ~10 on the prior run.
Click to expand...

Good news for CONUS folks who don't want Jerry to come by. The 12Z Euro Ens is much less active as regards the CONUS vs the 0Z mentioned above. Whereas the 0Z essentially had ~14 actual TC hits (over 25%), the 12Z has only ~4 legit TC hits: 3 FL pen, and 1 LA/MS.

Edit: The TCs in the Bahamas at hour 240 do later hit FL, but these are NOT from Jerry as they're from a later wave.
 
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GaWx said:
Good news for CONUS folks who don't want Jerry to come by. The 12Z Euro Ens is much less active as regards the CONUS vs the 0Z mentioned above. Whereas the 0Z essentially had ~14 actual TC hits (over 25%), the 12Z has only ~4 legit TC hits: 3 FL pen, and 1 LA/MS.
Click to expand...
I don't think anyone wants Jerry to come by, in, or around.
Speaking for myself, I don't believe the models until its a short timeframe or it happens. Too many whoops for my comfort level.
 
Henry2326 said:
I don't think anyone wants Jerry to come by, in, or around.
Speaking for myself, I don't believe the models until its a short timeframe or it happens. Too many whoops for my comfort level.
Click to expand...

1. I'm sure some readers want it, especially since this is a wx BB. Some have even admitted it though perhaps in a roundabout way. Example:
https://southernwx.com/community/threads/scorchtember.609/page-20#post-198646

They're crazy though (I know @pcbjr agrees 1,000%) and may regret that desire if they were to actually experience it, especially the aftermath.
2. I remain at a 90% chance for a miss of the CONUS. I'm still thinking it is too early to say the US is in the clear despite the VERY strong model guidance in favor of a miss. The issue of a much stronger storm leading to a further south track can't yet be totally eliminated from what I'm reading. However, I'd still easily lay $50 to win $10 on a bet that the CONUS is not hit.
3. I'd go something like 98% chance of no CONUS hit once we know this is not going to go into the Caribbean IF that ends up the case.
 
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GaWx said:
1. I'm sure some readers want it, especially since this is a wx BB. Some have even admitted it though perhaps in a roundabout way. Example:
https://southernwx.com/community/threads/scorchtember.609/page-20#post-198646

They're crazy though (I know @pcbjr agrees 1,000%) and may regret that desire if they were to actually experience it, especially the aftermath.
2. I remain at a 90% chance for a miss of the CONUS. I'm still thinking it is too early to say the US is in the clear despite the VERY strong model guidance in favor of a miss. The issue of a much stronger storm leading to a further south track can't yet be totally eliminated from what I'm reading. However, I'd still easily lay $50 to win $10 on a bet that the CONUS is not hit.
3. I'd go something like 98% chance of no CONUS hit once we know this is not going to go into the Caribbean IF that ends up the case.
Click to expand...
I hope you are right......and I agree.....the aftermath is a b___h.....
 
GaWx said:
1. I'm sure some readers want it, especially since this is a wx BB. Some have even admitted it though perhaps in a roundabout way. Example:
https://southernwx.com/community/threads/scorchtember.609/page-20#post-198646

They're crazy though (I know @pcbjr agrees 1,000%) and may regret that desire if they were to actually experience it, especially the aftermath.
2. I remain at a 90% chance for a miss of the CONUS. I'm still thinking it is too early to say the US is in the clear despite the VERY strong model guidance in favor of a miss. The issue of a much stronger storm leading to a further south track can't yet be totally eliminated from what I'm reading. However, I'd still easily lay $50 to win $10 on a bet that the CONUS is not hit.
3. I'd go something like 98% chance of no CONUS hit once we know this is not going to go into the Caribbean IF that ends up the case.
Click to expand...

The past years we have had TCs provide us with plentiful rain, I’m not saying I want a major Hurricane making landfall, but’s it’s bad either way you go, drought or a cane, at least a TS with a big washout
 
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