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Tropical Hurricane Isaias

Shear is having its way again. Convection is blowing up but it’s being blown away from the llc

It looks like quite “a mess”, which is a great thing. I much prefer messy/disorganized to organized/“pretty “ when a storm is threatening land. I think Brad’s use of the word “pathetic” is inappropriate because it implies that Brad is disappointed/pissed that the storm is not stronger and therefore not more dangerous. That’s why it is not professional....one of the main jobs of a met is to protect people’s lives.
 
Need the llc to die off and a new one form under that MLC, you can see a clear wind shift on the recon NE of the center.....

recon_AF305-1509A-ISAIAS.png
 
Imo the convection over the mlc is going to be blown off and die soon.

Yeah the last few frames are not encouraging for it being able to maintain, that shear is to much...if that naked llc moves in over FL and the current flare up dies then this thing will be on serious life support....hell as it is the LLC must be weak as hell as its hard to even pick it out on radar....
 
Yeah the last few frames are not encouraging for it being able to maintain, that shear is to much...if that naked llc moves in over FL and the current flare up dies then this thing will be on serious life support....hell as it is the LLC must be weak as hell as its hard to even pick it out on radar....

I wouldn't be surprised if we see some kind of reformation as long as that convection remains intense... Isaias will have a brief window of slightly better upper environment (as evidenced with a small anticyclone aloft and some outflow development recently).

There's definitely been some tug imparted with all that deep convection..
 
000
WTNT34 KNHC 020254
TCPAT4

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Isaias Advisory Number 20
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092020
1100 PM EDT Sat Aug 01 2020

...ISAIAS CONTINUES TO SLOWLY APPROACH THE SOUTHEAST FLORIDA
COAST...


SUMMARY OF 1100 PM EDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...25.5N 79.1W
ABOUT 80 MI...130 KM ESE OF FORT LAUDERDALE FLORIDA
ABOUT 105 MI...165 KM SE OF WEST PALM BEACH FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH...110 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 310 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...995 MB...29.39 INCHES
Pressure went up a bit.
 
Nhc mention of that other mlc is interesting......doubt it works down and reforms but this is the tropics
 
This is starting to look like more of a situation for SC and eventually central NC folks ... could be a good chunk of time with howling winds and blinding rain
 
TWC was showing all the different planes and their flight paths and said all.the data from the upper air flight will be in the 6z runs
 
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