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Tropical Hurricane Isaias

Sitting over the Gulf stream now.

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Downeastnc said:
The tracks right on the coast will keep winds down W of the center and the storm will be pretty lopsided ( assuming it makes it through the night lol) and a lot of these wind maps are very generous given the modeled tracks...the Ukie and HMON 12Z tracks are the ones to watch out for at least up NC way for a big widespread wind event....that last 12-24 hrs will be painfully long especially if the storm is doing crazy stuff.....
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Expecting Isaias to eventually become increasingly more N-S vs W-E asymmetrical as it moves north of Florida. Definitely gonna have to watch how fast it moves away from the Florida coast and interacts with the jet to its north, certainly could be a decent bout of intensification before it strikes the Carolinas (presuming it ever goes back over water).
 
Would be interesting to see if this flare up can persist if it can pull the LLC back up under it. Wouldnt have to pull it much.
 
Webberweather53 said:
Expecting Isaias to eventually become increasingly more N-S vs W-E asymmetrical as it moves north of Florida. Definitely gonna have to watch how fast it moves away from the Florida coast and interacts with the jet to its north, certainly could be a decent bout of intensification before it strikes the Carolinas (presuming it ever goes back over water).
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All it takes is a little room and a well timed pressure drop to make a BIG difference to the sensible weather in the Carolina's.....also obviously a storm away from the coast has more room to get that rounder wind field so the west side has a better chance of significant winds even well out from the center.....the crappy part is not knowing what to expect lol, wind gust to 40 or 80.......
 
GeorgiaGirl said:
It is worth noting that if the HRRR is right again (as it had Isaias starting to look better around this time) it has Isaias looking like this in about 11 hours:

View attachment 45754

And has some steady development through the night, so we'll see what happens.
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What’s the chances this pops a eye over night?


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18z GFS rides up I-95 and just like every other model, it doesn't weaken but actually drops a mb or two during it's trek across the state. This may be the rare occasion where those clown wind maps might not be too far off, considering all the atmospheric forces in play during that time and speed of the system
 
Weird, lightning production may be from the drier air aloft (cooling aloft for lightning production from the dry air entrainment) ? Idk but that lightning is ridiculous
 
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