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Tropical Major Hurricane Erin

Henry2326 said:
Yeah, I'm concerned. My inner cynic is kicking in. Not one model has a cat4 at 8am on Saturday. So we are flying by the seat of our pants hoping the thing follows an arbitrary path that has no assumption correct. Just crazy.
Is it possible that it stays west or south just long enough to change that curve? Million dollar question.
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I get it but I just can't see the models being that far off in 2025

This isn't the 20th century

I remember when Floyd wasn't gonna turn when Katrina wasn't gonna turn when Dorian wasn't gonna turn

They all turned. I had people swearing up and down a 185 mph Dorian(tied for the strongest hurricane ever on winds) would make it's own track

It did not
 
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Motion the last few hours has been due west or maybe even south of due west. Don’t think it really matters but definitely on the southern side of the cone
 
Brent said:
I get it but I just can't see the models being that far off in 2025

This isn't the 20th century
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I agree.....however one of the reasons the earlier model runs that got close to the east coast did so was the storm was stronger sooner. Figure we see them bump the cone a bit west next update and at least in the short term Erin will definitely be on the western edge of guidance.
 
Downeastnc said:
I agree.....however one of the reasons the earlier model runs that got close to the east coast did so was the storm was stronger sooner. Figure we see them bump the cone a bit west next update and at least in the short term Erin will definitely be on the western edge of guidance.
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Yeah that's fair... Probably better news for Bermuda tbh
 
Brent said:
I get it but I just can't see the models being that far off in 2025

This isn't the 20th century

I remember when Floyd wasn't gonna turn when Katrina wasn't gonna turn when Dorian wasn't gonna turn

They all turned. I had people swearing up and down a 185 mph Dorian(tied for the strongest hurricane ever on winds) would make it's own track

It did not
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2019 Dorian - initially forecast similar as hurricane cat1. But was cat4. Wild change in path. I'm not saying it's own track. I'm saying a change in path enough to hit land.

8f094fb3-10cd-4038-80a3-f6286478daba-full21x9_dorian.jpg
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Henry2326 said:
2019 Dorian - initially forecast similar as hurricane cat1. But was cat4. Wild change in path. I'm not saying it's own track. I'm saying a change in path enough to hit land.

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Yeah fair that actually saved Florida but that's my thing usually if they shift they shift right

Floyd did too. Went from Florida to NC
 
Brent said:
Yeah fair that actually saved Florida but that's my thing usually if they shift they shift right

Floyd did too. Went from Florida to NC
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Hell Florence went from going up east of Bermuda to hitting the Carolinas. So big misses in the overall setup can happen but it seems less likely as models improve...lets see how long it takes her to get north of 20N....she already looks like she might be moving a tad bit north of west again...but with the RI she is going to wobble around..
 
Downeastnc said:
Hell Florence went from going up east of Bermuda to hitting the Carolinas. So big misses in the overall setup can happen but it seems less likely as models improve...lets see how long it takes her to get north of 20N....she already looks like she might be moving a tad bit north of west again...but with the RI she is going to wobble around..
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That was also a week out almost too... We're inside 4 days here. They can't be that wrong

And yeah it's probably just a wobble

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By no means am I implying that this morning's short-term motion has any meaningful impact in the long term, but it's noteworthy that the storm is south of all guidance in the short term. Thankfully, this didn't happen upon approach to land; otherwise, people who would have thought they would certainly be south of the core would have been unpleasantly surprised.
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