Severe Heavy rain / flash flooding, 12/26/18-1/2/19

[cyclogent]

Might as well fire up a thread, as we have several rounds of heavy rain coming up in the next week. The latest WPC 7 day QPF shows a huge area of 3+ inches of precip covering most of the Southeast, with an axis of 5+ inches along the entire I-59 corridor from New Orleans to Chattanooga. Flood watches already up parts of LA, MS, AL, GA, TN, SC, NA, and VA. Quite possibly the wettest 7 day period we will see all winter.

 

[Arcc]

Ugh.....

That is all that needs to be said.

 

[NorthDFWwx]

Disgusting.

 

[cyclogent]

Parts of KY and WV also under a flood watch, as well as 1 county in the western panhandle of FL, bringing the total to 11 states. Welcome to the party.

 

[deltadog03]

I’m noticing that models are backing off a bit on qpf a bit over GA

 

[NoSnowATL]

I’m noticing that models are backing off a bit on qpf a bit over GA

Might cut the totals in half, man the models are bad right now even with the rain events.


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[NorthDFWwx]

Might cut the totals in half, man the models are bad right now even with the rain events.


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I'd be ok with that type of model error.

 

[WXinCanton]

Heaviest axis seems to have shifted west on the 12z GFS

 

[WXinCanton]

 

[Myfrotho704_]

Strong storms seems possible to with 30-40kt of bulk shear, 150-250 m2/s2 of 0-3km helicity and 500-700 jkg of mlcape, also appears to be some dry air aloft which would aid in downdrafts and plus 500-700 jkg of downdraft Cape

 

[gawxnative]

Been noting some weak rotations with just about any cell that gets to 40k... just show the amount of shear .

 

[NorthDFWwx]

At least we're managing to get a little bit of thunder and lightning out of this.

It makes the stuff more interesting.

 

[EmersonGA]

At least we're managing to get a little bit of thunder and lightning out of this.

It makes the stuff more interesting.

That caught me by surprise. I thought a transformer had blown until the thunder came.

 

[Storm5]

Getting close to an inch so far


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[BillyMurrayWx]

Looks like some pretty heavy rates falling from about Cartersville, Ga to Auburn at 10:45.

 

[cyclogent]

Not part of the Southeast of course, but as of today, flood watches have been added for parts of MD, DE, PA, and NJ, bringing the total up to 15 states with flood watches in effect at the same time.

 

[campamy]

The two pws closest to my new house on the East side of Cleveland are reporting 1.58" and 1.7" of rain since about 5pm.

 

[MBell]

Sitting at 1.94" currently since about 6PM or so. 49 degrees and slowly rising. Have had several rounds of thunder and lightning as well..that was a bit of a surprise.

 

[crecre9]

2.27 at my house in Huntsville today

 

[Ilovesnow28]

So far 3.8 inches has fallen and this system is moving at a slow pace