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Learning Global Warming facts and fiction

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GaWx said:
Early next week, Portland/Seattle/Eugene/Kamloops are forecasted to have highs that would be a whopping 11/10/10/9 above their June highs and 6/3/4/6 above their all-time highs!! Those aren't typos.

More from Don S. at AmericanWx today, this time about this upcoming historic Pacific NW heatwave:

"A heatwave of potentially unprecedented proportions for parts of the Pacific Northwest Region, including Oregon, Washington, and British Columbia is now in its early stages of evolving. June high temperature records will likely be shattered across much of the region. Numerous all-time high temperature records will likely be challenged or broken.

On Monday, the most populated region in the Pacific Northwest could see widespread temperature anomalies more than 4 standard deviations above the normal figures. A small part of the region could experience temperatures more than 6 standard deviations above normal.

Standardized Temperature Anomalies (6/28 18z):

View attachment 85763
Select June, All-Time Records, Forecast Maximum Temperatures:

View attachment 85764
Western sections of Oregon, Washington, and British Columbia, including Portland, Seattle, and Vancouver, will likely see the highest temperatures during the June 26-29 period. Elsewhere, exceptional warmth could persist into the opening days of July.

Minimum temperatures will also approach monthly and all-time lows, especially in areas affected by the Urban Heat Island (UHI) effect, namely Portland, Seattle, and Vancouver.

Climate change is increasing the frequency, magnitude, and duration of extreme heat events. One important mechanism is through wave resonance events (Mann et al., 2017). If one steps back to a larger hemispheric perspective starting near the beginning of June, one has witnessed the emergence of mega-heat domes in a "whack-a-mole" fashion in the Northern Plains, Southwest, and northern and eastern Europe (including northwestern Russia) that led to record heat, including some monthly or all-time record high temperatures. This latest heat dome is the fourth such major event this month."
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I wonder what would happen to the wave resonance once the sea ice is gone and the Arctic warming slows down. Sure looks like we're heading to a hothouse state to me. CO2 < 170ppm triggers an ice age and more than 600ppm would trigger the hothouse state in which civilization would collapse well before we get there. We are being careless in just throwing our hands up and not taking care of the planet.


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BHS1975 said:
I wonder what would happen to the wave resonance once the sea ice is gone and the Arctic warming slows down. Sure looks like we're heading to a hothouse state to me. CO2 < 170ppm triggers an ice age and more than 600ppm would trigger the hothouse state in which civilization would collapse well before we get there. We are being careless in just throwing our hands up and not taking care of the planet.


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Did you go check the CO2 ppm in the past, and if so what did you find?
 
MichaelJ said:
Did you go check the CO2 ppm in the past, and if so what did you find?
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Yes sir and I found that GHGs acts like a thermostat for planets by determining how much heat is captured.

www.nasa.gov

Direct Observations Confirm Humans Affect Earth's Energy Budget

Earth is on a budget – an energy budget. Our planet is constantly trying to balance the flow of energy in and out of Earth’s system. But human activities are throwing that off balance, causing our planet to warm in response.
www.nasa.gov www.nasa.gov


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Portland hit 108 today, which obliterates the 102 June record high and beat 107 for a new alltime high record! And believe it or not, this is likely to turn out to be tame relative to the next two days!! Moreover, this type of thing (obliteration of records) is/will be the case in many other cities between now and Monday in Oregon, Washington, and British Columbia!

Do I think AGW is contributing to this? I strongly feel that way. The globe is ~2F warmer than it was just since the 1970s and ~3 F warmer than 1900. And this is the fourth extreme heatwave just this month to go along with Desert SW, N Plains, and Russia. But is the likely contribution to this more than, say, 2-3F? That’s impossible to know. One thing that is an additional major contributor is the widespread drought in the area (see below), likely caused by La Niña, combining with the very anomalous Pacific NW ridge.

9EFEE722-6114-430C-A8B1-2FB93513F678.gif

Edit: Do I think the SE will end up with a widespread multiday major heatwave this summer? I highly doubt it based on the configuration of drought areas in the US (heat should remain concentrated out west and along the northern border), model forecasts, and persistence. Regarding persistence, it can be a powerful forecasting tool in summer. KATL's highest through June will end up at only 92. History shows that with no hotter than 92 along with moist soils, the chance for even a single day at KATL of 100+ is quite low and even the chance for upper 90s is not high. I could see either no upper 90s or at most a couple of days that hot.

On that note, just as June will end up near the 30 year normal, I expect July-Aug to be similar with near to above normal rainfall.
 
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BHS1975 said:
The first step would be a global government as this is a planet wide problem.


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WHOA, you have swallowed the bait, hook, line, and sinker. You better hope we don't have global government, heck the one we have currently in this country is bad enough. The WHO is a global institution and look how badly they screwed up in the recent Pandemic or just look at the UN and see how useless and dangerous it is to freedom. Socialist/Communist have maintained, after complete and utter failures, that we just need the right kind of them to make it work, never happens
 
BHS1975 said:
Humans are just smart enough to be dangerous. It will be a miracle if we make it to the end of the century.


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Maybe the truest post you've ever made.

BHS1975 said:
The first step would be a global government as this is a planet wide problem.


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Maybe the most ridiculous post you've ever made.
 
What we have now is not sustainable. It's like running a balance deficit on your budget.


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BHS1975 said:
A technocratic world gov is the only way out. That's where advanced civilizations end up anyway.


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Do you need time to tie your shoes for you as well? Perhaps make you breakfast lunch and dinner and change your diapers? Your solution is more control ? End of all freedom? You seen the rest of the world ? A lot of countries aren’t capable of providing basic necessities to their citizens and you want them to have voting powers and say in the lives of people here in America ? Dang man you must have hit your head hard !
 
Lickwx said:
Do you need time to tie your shoes for you as well? Perhaps make you breakfast lunch and dinner and change your diapers? Your solution is more control ? End of all freedom? You seen the rest of the world ? A lot of countries aren’t capable of providing basic necessities to their citizens and you want them to have voting powers and say in the lives of people here in America ? Dang man you must have hit your head hard !
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If civilization collapses all that won't matter.


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Something drastic has to change. The status quo would mean extinction. We squandered all the time we had to ease into the changes needed.


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