That mega PV we had this winter isn't going to pay off. I hope we aren't going to enter some cycle of mega winter pvs then warm arctic summers
I don't disagree with Scripture, but this is an odd thing to post in the GW thread. Hard to argue that the climate isn't getting warmer, though.
It absolutely is and few scientists dispute we are in a warming period. The questions of what is causing it and the severity of its effects are where the rub is. Personally I believe once the PDO and AMO both go strongly negative, the sea ice will rebound and the oceans will cool, which are the drivers of our climate anyway. How much it will cool is unknown but there will be a gradual step down IMO
Do you mean they will be worse, more frequent or what exactly? History tells us a cold AMO results in LESS hurricanes and increases the tendency to recurve. There has been some excellent work done on the AMO impacts on hurricane season by Phil Klotzbach along with some good analysis from Judith Curry which help explain this
When do you expect both will go strongly negative?
I expect the AMO will in 2-3 years because it is already showing signs of being neutral to negative. The PDO is much more fickle and changes every 10 years or so while the AMO only changes every 25-30 years. Remember though, there is a lag time of 3-5 years for an actual decrease in ocean temps.
Sure, anytime you have an increase in OHC you will see a co-responding potential increase of intensity. But if the AMO reduces the OHC by going negative, intensities should not go up but rather down.