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Pattern Flaming Feb 2021
- Thread starter SD
- Start date
Ron Burgundy
Member
Yeah, that would be triple the highest snowfall ever recorded at KATL. I’d call that a nice run. ?
Brad P is bullish on this storm.
Broken024
Member
Surprised to see him do that 7 days out
B
Brick Tamland
Guest
Looks like it could be a long duration event here. Maybe 36 hours.
Booo 
NWMSGuy
Member
Interesting AFD from Memphis this morning. Check out the last paragraph regarding the upcoming pattern:
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Memphis TN
532 AM CST Fri Feb 5 2021
.UPDATE...
12Z Aviation Update Below
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 358 AM CST Fri Feb 5 2021/
DISCUSSION...
Currently...Skies are mostly clear across the region with just a
few high clouds moving across North MS. Weak high pressure is
building in behind the front and surface are diminishing across
the Mid-South. Temps are falling into the 20s north to lower 30s
south.
An impressive cold airmass is building across Canada and the
northern U.S. The Mid-South will flirt with this cold air this
weekend into early next week before this airmass plows into the
region during the middle and end of next week with much below
temperatures and possibly some wintry precipitation.
Weak surface high pressure will prevail across the region with
sunny skies and seasonably cool temps today. A fast moving mid
level shortwave will result in increasing clouds tonight.
This approaching shortwave is more impressive in the latest model
runs and have increased pops Saturday afternoon into Saturday
evening in response. Most of the precip should be liquid though
some mixing with snow is possible across the northern tier of the
Mid-South as cold air advects in from the north. If enough cold
air advects in there could be a changeover to all snow before
precip ends. A few models support this scenario. If this happens
there could be a quick dusting of snow across the northern tier
Saturday evening. Behind this system some of the cold air to the
north oozes into the northern half of the Mid-South where temps
will only be in the 30s and lower 40s Sunday.
Cold air retreats temporarily on Monday as low pressure develops
over the ARKLATEX and moves toward the region. Highs will reach
into the 50s most places so enjoy this last mild day. After this
system moves through Tuesday the gates are open and cold air will
pour into the region on northerly surface winds. Starting Tuesday
each day will become colder continuing into the weekend.
Meanwhile the upper level flow will remain WSW with moisture in
the southern stream overrunning the advancing arctic airmass at
times resulting in chances for winter weather starting Monday
night and continuing through the end of the forecast period. It is
too soon to really pinpoint timing but one thing is certain...this
is a dangerous pattern for winter weather.
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Memphis TN
532 AM CST Fri Feb 5 2021
.UPDATE...
12Z Aviation Update Below
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 358 AM CST Fri Feb 5 2021/
DISCUSSION...
Currently...Skies are mostly clear across the region with just a
few high clouds moving across North MS. Weak high pressure is
building in behind the front and surface are diminishing across
the Mid-South. Temps are falling into the 20s north to lower 30s
south.
An impressive cold airmass is building across Canada and the
northern U.S. The Mid-South will flirt with this cold air this
weekend into early next week before this airmass plows into the
region during the middle and end of next week with much below
temperatures and possibly some wintry precipitation.
Weak surface high pressure will prevail across the region with
sunny skies and seasonably cool temps today. A fast moving mid
level shortwave will result in increasing clouds tonight.
This approaching shortwave is more impressive in the latest model
runs and have increased pops Saturday afternoon into Saturday
evening in response. Most of the precip should be liquid though
some mixing with snow is possible across the northern tier of the
Mid-South as cold air advects in from the north. If enough cold
air advects in there could be a changeover to all snow before
precip ends. A few models support this scenario. If this happens
there could be a quick dusting of snow across the northern tier
Saturday evening. Behind this system some of the cold air to the
north oozes into the northern half of the Mid-South where temps
will only be in the 30s and lower 40s Sunday.
Cold air retreats temporarily on Monday as low pressure develops
over the ARKLATEX and moves toward the region. Highs will reach
into the 50s most places so enjoy this last mild day. After this
system moves through Tuesday the gates are open and cold air will
pour into the region on northerly surface winds. Starting Tuesday
each day will become colder continuing into the weekend.
Meanwhile the upper level flow will remain WSW with moisture in
the southern stream overrunning the advancing arctic airmass at
times resulting in chances for winter weather starting Monday
night and continuing through the end of the forecast period. It is
too soon to really pinpoint timing but one thing is certain...this
is a dangerous pattern for winter weather.
I’m not really. Watching his videos over the years, he is someone who puts most of the weight of his forecast into ensembles outside about 3 days.
iGRXY
Member
Is it bad that I hope the GFS continues to look like crap because of how bad it has become. I have gotten to the point where whatever it shows I go with the absolute opposite.
Stormlover
Member
from birmingham nws:
Wednesday night through Friday:
Difficult, potentially high impact forecast in the long range as a
shallow Arctic air mass undercuts moist southwest flow aloft, as
weak waves in the southwest flow aloft cause weak waves of low
pressure to develop along a quasi-stationary Arctic front. Run to
run consistency in the deterministic models is poor with a lot of
spread in the ensembles. But if sufficient moisture is present the
air mass will certainly be cold enough for wintry precipitation.
Forecast soundings mainly indicate a strong warm nose which would
suggest any wintry precipitation would primarily be in the form of
freezing rain and sleet. Some potential for wintry precip may
begin as early as Wednesday night in the far northwest, but at
this time the main chances for impacts looks to be Thursday night
and Friday (and possibly beyond).
Wednesday night through Friday:
Difficult, potentially high impact forecast in the long range as a
shallow Arctic air mass undercuts moist southwest flow aloft, as
weak waves in the southwest flow aloft cause weak waves of low
pressure to develop along a quasi-stationary Arctic front. Run to
run consistency in the deterministic models is poor with a lot of
spread in the ensembles. But if sufficient moisture is present the
air mass will certainly be cold enough for wintry precipitation.
Forecast soundings mainly indicate a strong warm nose which would
suggest any wintry precipitation would primarily be in the form of
freezing rain and sleet. Some potential for wintry precip may
begin as early as Wednesday night in the far northwest, but at
this time the main chances for impacts looks to be Thursday night
and Friday (and possibly beyond).
BelmontWX79
Member
So the parallel Euro shows what may be a once in a lifetime storm for many in the Carolinas. I have cherry picked some highlight but basically this would be a 2day event of snow and ice. Look at this temperatures! I think the coldest in my lifetime during a winter storm around Charlotte since Jan 1988.
Here is the maximum precip in 24hrs. Storm last mainly from 180-228hrs with storm totals of 1-3" liquid eq.
And here are the850's. First is at the start of the event with the second the warmest during the storm. Look like a lot of place in the central Carolinas would transition from snow to ice.
If this verified the Carolinas would be shut down for awhile!
Here is the maximum precip in 24hrs. Storm last mainly from 180-228hrs with storm totals of 1-3" liquid eq.
And here are the850's. First is at the start of the event with the second the warmest during the storm. Look like a lot of place in the central Carolinas would transition from snow to ice.
If this verified the Carolinas would be shut down for awhile!
ICON looks like a cutter.
ForsythSnow
Moderator
Forget the Carolinas, look at metro ATL. 2 feet in downtown Atlanta would shut the city down for a good week if not more.
Broken024
Member
So what exactly is the parallel euro?
ICON is just a cutter with some ice/barely snow in the western part of the SE, bleh 
Wait, there could be more coming off the back of the ICON.
BelmontWX79
Member
Well forget you too! J/K. Yeah really should say much of the southeast would be shut down for awhile. Good thing the kids are already doing the distance learning but hard to do that if you don't have power. Still a long ways off though and there will be much excitement and I'm sure cliff diving between now and then.
The first time my old man was stationed in NC we lived here for the March 1980 storm. The Virginian Pilot called it the Circus Blizzard because Ringling Brothers was at the Norfolk Scope Arena when it happened. I don’t think they have had one since then. We moved summer of 1980 and came back October of 1987. I know they haven’t had anything like since since 1987. So March 1980 was my once in a lifetime. Hopefully my kids (and all kids) can get one of these.
Hopefully that euro/EPS run this morning was a blip because they weakened the Alaskan TPV much more