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Pattern Failbruary Thread

Gefs ext basically says February is a lost nina cause, and you can start seeing signs of the SPV weakening at the end of its run, signs that spring is indeed coming View attachment 110024View attachment 110025View attachment 110026
Yep, heard that all December about January, outside of a good 10, maybe if we're really really really lucky, a 14 day period. Enjoy your few days of winter because ya know 2nd year ninas strat pv torque extensions tropical convection going to stay in a bad spot -Aamtq mountain spin unwelling volcanoes detonating solar flare induction winter's over.
 
Yep, heard that all December about January, outside of a good 10, maybe if we're really really really lucky, a 14 day period. Enjoy your few days of winter because ya know 2nd year ninas strat pv torque extensions tropical convection going to stay in a bad spot -Aamtq mountain spin unwelling volcanoes detonating solar flare induction winter's over.
2011-12
 
Yep, heard that all December about January, outside of a good 10, maybe if we're really really really lucky, a 14 day period. Enjoy your few days of winter because ya know 2nd year ninas strat pv torque extensions tropical convection going to stay in a bad spot -Aamtq mountain spin unwelling volcanoes detonating solar flare induction winter's over.
I was actually one of the people vouching for a colder pattern change in January lol
 
The Ensembles however want to try to move that semi-permanent okhotsk low and budge in east towards the Aleutians towards week 2 in Feb, but the GOA ridge is just plain ugly FEDFC0BF-129D-47D9-828C-2520AB7DB9B4.png04C88020-8B39-4C67-9D56-58144D4B10E0.png2C4CD77B-4682-40ED-B186-9C7D45102086.png
 
When the extended maps are starting to look really butt ugly again, I know the dreaded -PNA is returning.
I'm thinking we are in a 25 to 30 day cycle, generally. I am confident the trough will shift to the west in February and we will generally ridge. The question is how strong will the ridge be? There still could be chances for winter weather during the transition and if the -NAO returns.
 
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