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Pattern Failbruary Thread

Mr. Golf said:
I gotcha. I guess hopefully we will return to winter again in February at some point
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Well, we first have to leave winter in order to return to winter.

Meanwhile, the last 4 runs of the CFS suggest that after the upcoming 2 weeks that the US will continue stubbornly cold Rockies to NE/Mid Atlantic to north/west portions of the SE with near normal central SE and AN FL (SER influence). So, looking at the US as a whole and your area in particular, there’s no end to winter in sight per the last 24 hours of CFS runs fwiw.
 
GaWx said:
Well, we first have to leave winter in order to return to winter.

Meanwhile, the last 4 runs of the CFS suggest that after the upcoming 2 weeks that the US will continue stubbornly cold Rockies to NE/Mid Atlantic to north/west portions of the SE with near normal central SE and AN FL (SER influence). So, looking at the US as a whole and your area in particular, there’s no end to winter in sight per the last 24 hours of CFS runs fwiw.
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Larry, I hope the cfs is correct.
 
Fudruckers February. Florence February. Fleas February. Feet February. Fist Face February. Fruity Feb. Frightful Feb. Feeding Mice. Freaky February.
 
I could see a severe weather outbreak the first week of February. Maybe winter wx the 2 or 3 week before going into spring.
 
GaWx said:
Well, we first have to leave winter in order to return to winter.

Meanwhile, the last 4 runs of the CFS suggest that after the upcoming 2 weeks that the US will continue stubbornly cold Rockies to NE/Mid Atlantic to north/west portions of the SE with near normal central SE and AN FL (SER influence). So, looking at the US as a whole and your area in particular, there’s no end to winter in sight per the last 24 hours of CFS runs fwiw.
Click to expand...

The CFS has since turned warmer for Feb but it flips around a lot. More significantly, the GEFS based indices’ forecasts for early Feb are more favorable for AN in the SE with a -PNA (as opposed to earlier predictions of just a lessening of the +PNA), which @pcbjr was rightfully warning us about.That along with no -AO or -NAO wouldn’t bode well for my -3 F prediction to @Lickwx for 2/1-14 prediction for RDU and ATL. Also, the EPS still has the MJO going into warm phase 6, which is discouraging on its own though the GEFS keeps it inside the circle.

In the meantime, enjoy the cold last part of January, regardless! I sure am.
 
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GaWx said:
The CFS has since turned warmer for Feb but it flips around a lot. More significantly, the GEFS based indices’ forecasts for early Feb are more favorable for AN in the SE with a -PNA (as opposed to earlier predictions of just a lessening of the +PNA), which @pcbjr was rightfully warning us about.That along with no -AO or -NAO wouldn’t bode well for my -3 F prediction to @Lickwx for 2/1-14 prediction for RDU and ATL. Also, the EPS still has the MJO going into warm phase 6, which is discouraging on its own though the GEFS keeps it inside the circle.

In the meantime, enjoy the cold last part of a January, regardless!
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I'm not surprised, for a while now the mid range of the GFS showed the western ridging backing off the coast and back towards over the Aleutian Islands. I figured it would take a couple days before long range models reflected that mid range change.
 
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