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Pattern February Discussion part 3. Don's Winter Storm Hunt

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Looks like we are baking at least into early March. At this rate we will be well into the mid 80's come mid March.


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ATLwxfan said:
Looks like we are baking at least into early March. At this rate we will be well into the mid 80's come mid March.


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Click to expand...
No sarcasm here ... Yup, a distinct possibility ... not to dash hopes but ....
 
pcbjr said:
No sarcasm here ... Yup, a distinct possibility ... not to dash hopes but ....
Click to expand...

If it's been anything it's been predictable. Warm looks verify, cold looks don't. We won't know when this breaks down as we can't seem to reliably forecast it.


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Aside from a transient seasonable Cp airmass near the end of the month, the EPS is above-well above average for the upcoming 15 days in the southeastern US, oth, as others have noted, the EPS starts to look much cooler &/or threatening near the end of the period, and while this is still about 2 weeks out, given the formidable phase 2 MJO pulse forthcoming near the beginning of March w/ waning pacific forcing, it seems legitimate...

eps_t850a_5d_noram_61.png


FMA MJO temperature composites w/ significance. Note the temperature anomalies in the eastern US in phase 2 & 3 are not only below normal, but are also significant (indicated by the deeper blues/purple shading) which are essentially equivalent to p-values. 90-95% significance levels (% values less than or equal to 10% & 5% respectively) are often good benchmarks wrt statistical significance...

Screen Shot 2017-02-17 at 4.48.22 PM.png
 
^The cold biases of the models have been so prevalent but at least the EPS hasn't been nearly as bad as the GEFS. So, I'm at least hopeful for early March. And don't forget that two of the three warmest winters on record for much of the SE US, 1889-90 and 1931-2, had a cold early to mid March fwiw. So, we'll see!
 
The 12z GEFS (the control run of the GEFS) has a winter event during the 26th-27th, not buying that yet cause the GFS OP and the EPS has that system cutting and also there is limited skill at that range. Next week, there could be a lot of fun around here model watching wise.

Edit: the indices show the EPO tanking and a -NAO during that time period. The GFS and GEFS are in agreement as of now on the MJO - weak phase 1 (someone send me the link to all of the models that are shown on the MJO).
 
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SnowHusky said:
The 12z GEFS (the control run of the GEFS) has a winter event during the 26th-27th, not buying that yet cause the GFS OP and the EPS has that system cutting and also there is limited skill at that range. Next week, there could be a lot of fun around here model watching wise.

Edit: the indices show the EPO tanking and a -NAO during that time period. The GFS and GEFS are in agreement as of now on the MJO - weak phase 1 (someone send me the link to all of the models that are shown on the MJO).
Click to expand...
http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/MJO/CLIVAR/clivar_wh.shtml

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