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Wintry February 19-21, 2020 Winter Storm

Shawn said:
NAM finally changing everything over for the Upsate, NE GA, heading towards Midlands, but there's a lot of warm nosing showing up, even far into NC.
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On the 10:1 maps it drops upwards of 3 inches just miles north of me on the 3KM. I'm all in on this trend. Seems to me that the tilt of the wave hurts the initial, but helps the backside more.
 
Disco_Lemonade said:
I wouldn't get too excited unless you like measuring snow in your rain gauge, no way that lasts another day of model runs.
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With all due respect yes I hope your right , and yes trends mostly favor pulling storms NW. I would appreciate some reason as to why! Can’t just say it will go NW because it did before .

I’ll provide reason though, that raging subtropical high down under !
 
Nick_boynton_ said:
I wouldn’t even be bothered by that rain snow line ... it will wiggle and move until we get to the now casting stage the key here is that a significant widespread winter storm threat is upon us ... this feels odd .. rip the grocery stores late tomorrow and Thursday I bet
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I agree I think this is gonna be a last minute storm in north Georgia like the last one we had. Eerie similarities
 
3KM continues to screw a lot of people over with sleet/mixing.
 
metwannabe said:
Sorry if you're close to that line 48 hrs out you need to be bothered a little, especially with a coastal now forming, it would go against all odds to not wiggle NW some. Take it from many years experience
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The coastal is headed ENE though so bring it on, the front axis is west to east so the SLP is not going to really be able to move "NW" but so much..... I will flirt with pingers a bit if it gives me another .30-.50 QPF to use on the backside.....the NAM crushes us again with a big ole area of 10-15" of snow over central eastern NC....the soundings are not bad even when it is mixing, I mean barely IP and once we flip to all snow I dont think we see it mix much more after that.....
 
Remember folks, the kuchera is usually TOO light with totals while the 10:1 is too much. Good measurement is to meet half way to get a more reasonable look at your totals.
 
This reminds me of a system in 2010 or 2011, but I can’t exactly remember.. they called for Chattanooga to get about an inch and we ended up getting about 4inches.

Same set up if I can remember correctly.
 
Ok I’m joining the NAM humping parade . It’s burned me more times than I can count but I guess it’s ride or die time for extreme northern Alabama
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