Loaded....
-
Hello, please take a minute to check out our awesome content, contributed by the wonderful members of our community. We hope you'll add your own thoughts and opinions by making a free account!
Pattern Fabulous February
- Thread starter PEA_RIDGE
- Start date
Any good trends last night? The FV3 has developed a strong block 3 out of the last 5 runs around or just after 240 hours. The Euro still looks the most favorable with the MJO, taking it though 7 and into 8 quickly. And the SOI is heading down. The operational models that I saw haven’t been as ugly with the SE ridge as some previous runs, but I don’t know if that means a whole lot. It sounds like the EPS maybe takes a step in the right direction in the mid-term but then gives it back later on in the run? I haven’t seen it, though. Looking for a reason not to bail after the 12z suite. I’m really trying here. Anybody got any help?!
Thanks. That’s a nice map. But you can tell it’s going to fail already. First, it’s the FV3. Since December, it’s been leading the way with fantasy storm fails. Second, you can see the high is already sliding offshore, with the primary headed in to Minnesota. Any good signals with the potential evolution of the pattern? I’m about to head to church, so I’ll check back in after. Is it wrong to pray for a pattern change??! Divine intervention might be our only hope at this point.Here's an FV3 fantasy storm
pcbjr
Member
Nomanslandva
Member
Old GFS might be the best of the ugly I have seen in a while. Instead of 4 massive cutters, at least the last 2 storms are further SE. But it was wrong this time last week with the system getting ready to bring rain today through mid week. I will not get my hopes up until a see a low in FL or maybe Cuba with cold available. Then maybe the NW trend can bring it home.
Thus morning’s 0Z GEFS based indices continue to be absolutely lousy throughout the bulk of the 2 week period if you want a cold SE: -PNA, +AO, and +NAO. Tick tock, assuming these are right, we’re now down to just the last few days of Feb for the earliest we could see a favorable pattern change. The GEFS and EPS continue with a very persistent N Pac blocking/ridging pattern that just won’t go away. N Pac block is essentially —PNA. We want that block to either dissipate or move 1000-1500 miles east of where it is but it won’t do either. A block/ridge in the wrong place is usually the worst case scenario for it getting cold. Ugly as can be! Nina-like. Great for cold in the NW 2/3 of the US, which is usually great for warmth in the SE. We want a trough where the N Pac block is so we could get a ridge near the west coast.
Last edited:
Our best hope is threading the needle in this look
Sent from my SM-G955U using Tapatalk
packfan98
Moderator
For those looking for hope, here are the 6z GEFS clown maps:
E15 has the southern areas skewed pretty bad
Not only that but the GEFS’ clown maps have proven to be day in and day out way overdone for the SE in recent weeks. With a -PNA, +AO, and +NAO, the odds highly favor very little to no snow for the bulk of the SE. Obviously, the far N and especially far NW parts of the SE would have the best shot for something significant. But a place like ATL would need a whole lot of luck/needle threading. I’d take the under for ATL and most everywhere vs what this GEFS clown mean shows for the next 16 days.
Gefs show a much better pattern from D8 on than the eps/geps. As you get out in time the gefs flatten the npac ridge and subsequently flatten the SE ridge. The geps eps continue the same ol crap. Given the way this winter has gone lean toward the warmer model until proven otherwise
Sent from my SM-G955U using Tapatalk
By the way, the SE warmth has little to do with GW and much more to do with the pattern being very ugly. After all, the NW 2/3 of the US is quite cold. Had the pattern been the opposite, the SE would have been quite cold. Remember that the globe is still only about 2 F warmer than 100+ years ago.
I kind of agree...but the EPS has been the suite showing transitions to colder patterns that never materialized, essentially caving to the GEFS’s depiction of trash. I hate to even entertain the idea of the GEFS leading the way, but the way we’ve seen the pattern play out, it’s at least worth watching.Gefs show a much better pattern from D8 on than the eps/geps. As you get out in time the gefs flatten the npac ridge and subsequently flatten the SE ridge. The geps eps continue the same ol crap. Given the way this winter has gone lean toward the warmer model until proven otherwise
Sent from my SM-G955U using Tapatalk
But to be honest the gefs really lost a snowy look like a month ago and hasn’t brought it back and now we’re starting to see it come back again... I wouldn’t discount fully but I would wait for more trends then to just write it off. It definitely is looking way more like the end of winter gets exciting
Good luck without the GEFS forecasted -PNA, +AO, and +NAO combo changing. And we’re starting to get very late as of the end of the 16 day period now. Furthermore, GEFS and the model consensus have been cold biased in the E US. I see no good news so far today.
JB is still adamant COLD the cold is coming in the east this morning? I know go ahead and laugh, I'm just passing His INFO along!! lol
Still too much trough in the west and more will be in the east!
phase 8 correlation!!!
So why is this going back to this day 12,
the opposite of what its phase forecast gives and what it is evolving toward in the short term?
HIS answer, its not! its heading to cold and snowy pattern
SOI tomorrows should be the first of the double digit drops......................
Still too much trough in the west and more will be in the east!
phase 8 correlation!!!
So why is this going back to this day 12,
the opposite of what its phase forecast gives and what it is evolving toward in the short term?HIS answer, its not! its heading to cold and snowy pattern
SOI tomorrows should be the first of the double digit drops......................
JB is headed to what likely will be his biggest DJF bust ever for the SE US. I mean a Dolly Parton/Pamela Anderson type bust is putting it mildly.
He’s going to need like -100 degree anomalies for the last week of Feb. So, I guess there’s still a chance.
Last edited: