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Tropical Eta

184
URNT15 KNHC 030309
AF304 0429A ETA HDOB 29 20201103
025830 1338N 08217W 6968 03077 9983 +084 -023 231052 058 058 008 00
025900 1339N 08218W 6961 03077 9977 +083 -027 232055 056 060 017 00
025930 1340N 08220W 6963 03064 9974 +078 -031 240057 059 062 014 00
030000 1342N 08221W 6960 03058 9963 +080 -036 243058 060 063 017 03
030030 1343N 08222W 6960 03053 9949 +083 -040 246061 063 063 020 00
030100 1344N 08223W 6972 03026 9934 +085 -042 246056 060 068 020 00
030130 1345N 08224W 6965 03022 9924 +083 -043 249053 058 070 020 00
030200 1347N 08225W 6971 03001 9912 +082 -044 241050 051 074 013 00
030230 1348N 08226W 6964 03001 9895 +086 -045 241052 054 074 016 00
030300 1349N 08227W 6976 02976 9869 +096 -046 243055 056 079 012 00
030330 1350N 08228W 6963 02974 9846 +100 -046 246061 062 080 012 00
030400 1352N 08229W 6960 02964 9835 +094 -045 241064 066 076 010 00
030430 1353N 08230W 6977 02921 9798 +107 -044 243070 073 080 000 00
030500 1354N 08231W 6958 02916 9755 +116 -042 240079 083 080 000 00
030530 1356N 08231W 6969 02861 9693 +128 -038 241093 098 083 012 00
030600 1357N 08232W 6970 02790 9637 +107 -033 239112 123 096 062 00
030630 1359N 08233W 6952 02680 9506 +107 -032 233116 127 135 057 03
030700 1400N 08234W 7064 02444 9377 +133 -028 230058 094 135 055 00
030730 1402N 08235W 6972 02501 9313 +134 -023 219027 044 039 007 00
030800 1403N 08237W 7045 02393 9253 +180 -018 061016 021 030 001 06
$$
;
135 kts found.
 
GeorgiaGirl said:
Kind of surprised that the pressure wasn't lower given the presentation but it doesn't change the situation. Just bad for the people in Nicaragua and Honduras.
Click to expand...

In addition to its very compact size (H force winds out only 25 miles) likely being a factor in it being "only" down into the 920s, here's what a pro met said:

"If you step back, it shouldn't be as surprising that recon "only" found 927 mb. In November, the tropopause is colder than during the peak of the season. That's likely helping us get the unusual -80C CDO."
 
000
URNT15 KNHC 030319
AF304 0429A ETA HDOB 30 20201103
030830 1403N 08239W 7049 02394 9257 +185 -003 017055 063 /// /// 03
030900 1404N 08238W 6966 02520 9277 +180 +012 038056 065 /// /// 03
030930 1404N 08237W 7021 02437 9251 +195 +024 078028 045 /// /// 03
031000 1402N 08236W 6984 02454 9221 +200 +034 092008 025 027 001 03
031030 1400N 08237W 6967 02480 9260 +162 +044 293038 065 036 002 03
031100 1400N 08238W 6955 02520 9292 +149 +052 311064 074 /// /// 03
031130 1402N 08237W 6970 02488 9238 +195 +054 341019 050 030 001 00
031200 1403N 08236W 6958 02499 9224 +205 +056 094016 022 031 002 00
031230 1404N 08235W 6970 02506 9297 +150 +059 129051 059 051 006 00
031300 1405N 08234W 6959 02582 9400 +114 +058 135095 111 091 043 03
031330 1406N 08232W 7036 02604 9534 +104 +048 136122 125 125 052 00
031400 1408N 08231W 6983 02776 9641 +107 +033 126113 123 100 051 00
031430 1409N 08230W 6935 02895 9692 +124 +018 128097 108 084 010 00
031500 1410N 08229W 6970 02905 9740 +124 +011 126088 095 078 002 00
031530 1411N 08228W 6976 02921 9794 +109 +006 125078 083 069 002 00
031600 1412N 08226W 6976 02945 9825 +103 +002 128072 076 066 005 00
031630 1413N 08225W 6969 02968 9858 +089 -003 130073 076 066 006 00
031700 1414N 08224W 6972 02979 9880 +085 -010 127076 079 064 009 00
031730 1416N 08223W 6967 02998 9893 +085 -017 123080 082 064 011 00
031800 1417N 08222W 6957 03021 9909 +082 -023 126075 079 065 011 00
$$
;
Pressure at 922 mb.
 
Well then.
recon_AF304-0429A-ETA_dropsonde8_20201103-0306.png
 
So I guess Eta will have to be retired in the future? Or will the NHC do that for Greek letter storms?
 
looks like barring something last minute it'll be 150 mph landfall til the postseason I don't think another recon will get there in time

Regardless still the 3rd strongest November hurricane on record

The euro is not as hyped up intensity wise as the prior runs but takes a hard left over Cuba with a hurricane moving west over the Gulf for awhile but ends up starting to recurve towards FL at the end of the run

ecmwf_z500_mslp_watl_11 (2).png
 
Last edited:
Yeah the Euro is not a good look for Florida.....more or less heading right for Tampa or just south of there......

sfcwind_mslp.us_se.png
 
After crossing the keys, northern cuba/ Landfall

1604401301025.png

1604401331299.png
 
Interesting.....00z Icon showing some weakness to let it escape.....actually we have seen it not be as strong as modeled.

Hit Jax???? That would be a one for the record books.....but it is 2020.

icon_mslp_wind_watl_fh126-165.gif
 
BRad has assured everyone, that if it makes it to the US, it will be a weak tropical storm.
 
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