Pattern ENSO for 21-22

[Mr. Golf]

Good observation. Actually, as of this latest weekly SST update (based on last week averaged out), Nino 1 + 2 remaining at -1.0 allowed it to become the coolest region albeit only by a small margin. Nino 3 by warming 0.3 to -0.8 moved to 2nd coolest. Nino 3.4 and 4 were both at -0.7 last week making them the warmest. In reality, it is a pretty balanced basin wide weak La Niña right now. But I’ll be looking to see if the gap of 1.2 over the others were to later widen.

 

[Mr. Golf]

View attachment 96331

A big difference guys

 

[GaWx]

View attachment 96331

Indeed, that shows what you’re saying about 1 + 2 becoming the coolest. Keep in mind that the weeklies sometimes don’t match CDAS too well. This CDAS chart implies that last week was near -1.5 in 1 + 2 vs the official -1.0.

 

[Webberweather53]

Indeed, that shows what you’re saying about 1 + 2 becoming the coolest. Keep in mind that the weeklies sometimes don’t match CDAS too well. This CDAS chart implies that last week was near -1.5 in 1 + 2 vs the official -1.0.

I wouldn’t exactly consider CDAS reliable when it comes to sanalyzing SSTs (or much of anything) in real time. CDAS is just the NCEP-NCAR reanalysis model (which is very old model and hasn’t been upgraded since the mid 1990s) run in real-time. NOAA should have taken it upon themselves to upgrade/replace CDAS and NCEP a long time ago. We’ve spent a lot of time focused on 20CR (which is fine), but we desperately need a new, modern-era reanalysis that supersedes R1.