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Pattern December to Remember

If there is anything we are learning right now, it’s that anything beyond 5 days or so has to be taken with a huge grain of salt and details are not going to be nailed down until inside 3 days. For whatever reason right now, models are struggling with even latching on to overall patterns.
 
Chazwin said:
If there is anything we are learning right now, it’s that anything beyond 5 days or so has to be taken with a huge grain of salt and details are not going to be nailed down until inside 3 days. For whatever reason right now, models are struggling with even latching on to overall patterns.
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We should have learned this many years ago.
 
Chazwin said:
If there is anything we are learning right now, it’s that anything beyond 5 days or so has to be taken with a huge grain of salt and details are not going to be nailed down until inside 3 days. For whatever reason right now, models are struggling with even latching on to overall patterns.
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It's been that way for at least a decade.
 
Brick Tamland said:
It's been that way for at least a decade.
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It's been that way for literally ever. You telling me weather models 10 years ago had better long-range accuracy than one's today? lol. There's so much that weather models cant see, I mean they are literally attempting to predict the interactions between a million frickin variables when there are at least 10 million more they just can't account for. Think of all the small details they don't see that add up into big changes, small topographical changes compounded over long distances, maybe even the interaction between built environments and the atmosphere, or even something like chaos theories butterfly affect.


I mean check this out, this is what goes into weather models. literal chaos theory and disorder. Look at this lorentz attractor. funny I learned about this from an article about dimensions of consciousness. This is weather turbulence modeled, a set of chaotic solutions. I also wonder how small temp changes work. I mean, our weather sensor might read something that rounds too 70.4 degrees, when in reality if we could break up a 1 cubic meter area of air and break that even further into smaller areas and be able to measure the temps in each of those smaller areas we would find so many variations! from 70.4, to 70.3893 to 70.2 to 70.7 etc etc. I mean weather models are just not able to see that stuff.


bumc0016-0162-f03.jpg



www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov

Dimensions of consciousness

www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov
 
Lickwx said:
It's been that way for literally ever. You telling me weather models 10 years ago had better long-range accuracy than one's today? lol. There's so much that weather models cant see, I mean they are literally attempting to predict the interactions between a million frickin variables when there are at least 10 million more they just can't account for. Think of all the small details they don't see that add up into big changes, small topographical changes compounded over long distances, maybe even the interaction between built environments and the atmosphere, or even something like chaos theories butterfly affect.


I mean check this out, this is what goes into weather models. literal chaos theory and disorder. Look at this lorentz attractor. funny I learned about this from an article about dimensions of consciousness. This is weather turbulence modeled, a set of chaotic solutions. I also wonder how small temp changes work. I mean, our weather sensor might read something that rounds too 70.4 degrees, when in reality if we could break up a 1 cubic meter area of air and break that even further into smaller areas and be able to measure the temps in each of those smaller areas we would find so many variations! from 70.4, to 70.3893 to 70.2 to 70.7 etc etc. I mean weather models are just not able to see that stuff.


bumc0016-0162-f03.jpg



www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov

Dimensions of consciousness

www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov
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We need to break the chains of Binary code and elevate ourselves into the realm of cubits to create exponentially more powerful weather models!
 
pcbjr said:
That's 384 hours out ... let's get it here 1st, then and if ... we can start talking about keeping it ... but 1st things 1st ...
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Agreed, but the run is an interesting outlier in that every day of it is BN in the SE. Happy Hour!
 
Ollie Williams said:
I absolutely love the high north of Alaska. If I could only have one teleconnection, that’s the one I’d pick. It was what made February 2014 so cold despite the +NAO, and occasional -EPO.
View attachment 95571
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Yeah it would help funnel the siberian airmass around it and towards North America. Add in a +PNA ridge and it's no wonder we just saw this mammoth of a trough. Nice ridging around towards Greenland as well.
 
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