Pattern December, Make analogs relevant again

[Brick Tamland]

Storm 01 - Day 7:

Wow, almost everyone has a storm for NC, and quite a few big dogs.

 

[ForsythSnow]

Storm 01 - Day 7:

How many of those are ice in CAD areas, or is that filtered?

 

[$alt]

How many of those are ice in CAD areas, or is that filtered?

Most are sleet/ice.

 

[SoutheastRidge]

Most are sleet/ice.

Would that "snow" in TN be mostly snow or would it be sleet and ice ?

 

[Xtreme Weather]

Wish GEFS had an algo for IP/ZR really makes things screwy

 

[Tarheel1]

Would that "snow" in TN be mostly snow or would it be sleet and ice ?

Ugggggh ! The word "clap" comes to mind!

 

[Brick Tamland]

Just counted and half of the GEFS are big dogs for here.

 

[$alt]

Would that "snow" in TN be mostly snow or would it be sleet and ice ?

THankfully, more sn than ip/ice

 

[MichaelJ]

The 12z GEFS is actually down in the number of members IMBY from it's 6z run with appreciable snow/ice. Went from 20/22 down to 16/22, still good odds but not a good trend as it seems to move the snow some northward

 

[Tarheel1]

THankfully, more sn than ip/ice

I really want this first storm to give a lot of us something! The cold air should be coming in on Wed, a fresh shot, then we get the good moisture, it'll be a nice event. Just want to score something, then the next one would be gravy!

 

[Tarheel1]

Naw

That means everything south of the ZR would be rain??

 

[GeorgiaGirl]

Naw

You have a different model, and a different run entirely, that's not the GEFS.

 

[Xtreme Weather]

That means everything south of the ZR would be rain??

You have to remember this is Goofy's interpretation LoL

12z says what ice storm

 

[$alt]

That GFS ice map above is old, from the 00z GFS.

 

[Xtreme Weather]

That GFS ice map above is old, from the 00z GFS.

Oops to many tabs open LoL

 

[Stormsfury]

FWIW, 13 of 20 GEFS members have frozen precip in the Lowcountry of SC 144hr 12-29-17

 

[$alt]

FWIW, 13 of 20 GEFS members have frozen precip in the Lowcountry of SC 144hr 12-29-17

As long as the precipitation is there; the CAD is going to win in this situation.

 

[Stormsfury]

As long as the precipitation is there; the CAD is going to win in this situation.

I can't even go into the OP GFS on 12/31/17. Basically a raging 250mb jet over NC with relatively meager precip breaking out. Haven't checked the omegas but ...

On that note, the CMC looks to have a decent handle on the wedge/precip breaking out which spells the Carolina/GA ice rink a coming

 

[Webberweather53]

Lol the GFS was an outlier once again even vs its own ensemble suite

 

[SD]

Lol the GFS was an outlier once again even vs its own ensemble suite

Nothing like being off by a factor of 10+ on qpf projections

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