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Wintry December 13-14 Saskatchewan Screamer

Webberweather53

Webberweather53

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Desert Southwest ?
Given this is only about 72 hours out or so, even though the setup is pretty fickle, could bust, and any snow we see won't amount to much in general, it's worth taking a shot...
Hopefully many of us in central NC score our 2nd snow TV event of the year
Post away!
I'll start w/ 12z EPS
eps_tsnow_24m_nc_13.png
 
packfan98 said:
As cold as it's supposed to be, it won't take much to cause issues.
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Yeah, agreed whatever falls stands a good chance to stick not just to elevated and grassy surfaces, but the roads esp w/ highs only making the mid-upper 30s on Wed. I could definitely see this being one of those events that results in a last second issuance of a winter weather advisory across parts of central NC if we play our cards right...
 
I will be working from home on Thursday, so the timing would be perfect. I would expect that if snow is falling, we'd probably remain in the mid/upper 20s. Going to be cold!
 
Webberweather53 said:
Yeah, agreed whatever falls stands a good chance to stick not just to elevated and grassy surfaces, but the roads esp w/ highs only making the mid-upper 30s on Wed. I could definitely see this being one of those events that results in a last second issuance of a winter weather advisory across parts of central NC if we play our cards right...
Click to expand...
Sounds like a recipe for a repeat of this.

13390408-1483728900-640x360.jpg
 
Anything we get from this event will probably stick like glue, these high temps the day before the event are pretty frigid for central NC's standards esp when we're not blanketed w/ consistent/thick cloud cover and/or have snow on the ground...
ecmwf_t2max_raleigh_11.png
 
Out to 42 hours the NAM looks faster and further east w/ the clipper over South Dakota vs all other major NWP atm. The Euro is most favorable for something in NC w/ a slower and stronger wave that carves out a deeper depression into the leading edge of the ridge over the eastern Pacific and West Coast.

18z NAM
namconus_z500_vort_us_39.png

12z GFS
gfs_z500_vort_us_9.png

12z CMC
gem_z500_vort_us_9.png

12z ECMWF
ecmwf_z500_vort_conus_9.png
 
The 18z GFS certainly looked a lot more like the NAM this run, the handling of this s/w over South Dakota on Wednesday morning is to blame. Notice in the recent run, how even the smallest deviation to the east and slight dampening of the wave dramatically changes the eventual outcome w/ this system. Instead of snow flurries flying in northern NC and VA, this very minute increase in forward speed and eastward relative juxtaposition pushes the system all the way towards the mid-Atlantic...

Unknown.gif
 
the upper low coming se seems to have a tail reaching back to the western dakotas also dropping more south, IF that is a piece of energy it could become something to watch closely.....
 
In light of the fact that this s/w would be entering the US from Saskatchewan and not Alberta, it was necessary to change the name to something more appropriate. Hopefully we can reel this sucker in
 
Webberweather53 said:
In light of the fact that this s/w would be entering the US from Saskatchewan and not Alberta, it was necessary to change the name to something more appropriate. Hopefully we can reel this sucker in
Click to expand...
We PM'd , but it has to be said publicly - Damn Webb, you are all over this like starch on rice ... ;)
 
Wish Mr. Clapton was singing Alberta, Alberta, but no go on the 06z Gfs.
 
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