• Hello, please take a minute to check out our awesome content, contributed by the wonderful members of our community. We hope you'll add your own thoughts and opinions by making a free account!

Tropical Chantal surprise!

Brent

Brent

Member
Joined
Dec 9, 2016
Messages
11,360
Reaction score
22,061
Location
Tulsa Oklahoma
Headed OTS but August will not go storm less!

Special Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1005 PM EDT Tue Aug 20 2019

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Recent satellite wind data indicate that the small low pressure
area located more than 450 miles southeast of Halifax, Nova Scotia,
has acquired a well-defined circulation and is producing tropical-
storm-force winds. As a result, advisories on Tropical Storm
Chantal will be initiated at 11 PM AST (0300 UTC). This system is
moving eastward at 15 to 20 mph across the open north Atlantic.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...near 100 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...near 100 percent.
 
Indeed surprising. Too bad we had to ruin a name for a crappy little ham sandwich. I’m I the only one hoping for an August record?
 
Maybe this thing pulls a Flo from last year and has no idea what it is doing. It is way out there but we are in a period where anything is possible now. The climate is changing. Maybe it comes back to bring some rain relief. We are all anxious for something to track.
 
HMMM WELL THAT DIDNT LAST LONG..........

TROPICAL STORM CHANTAL DISCUSSION NUMBER 2
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042019
500 AM AST WED AUG 21 2019

CHANTAL HAS CHANGED LITTLE OVERNIGHT. A SMALL AREA OF DEEP
CONVECTION HAS PERSISTED NORTHEAST OF THE TROPICAL STORM'S EXPOSED
SURFACE CENTER. GIVEN THE STEADY-STATE STRUCTURE OF THE CYCLONE, THE
INITIAL INTENSITY HAS BEEN HELD AT 35 KT BASED ON EARLIER ASCAT
DATA.

ONLY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS WERE MADE TO THE NHC TRACK AND INTENSITY
FORECASTS, THE MOST SUBSTANTIAL OF WHICH IS THAT CHANTAL IS NOW
EXPECTED TO BECOME A REMNANT LOW WITHIN 96 H. THE TROPICAL STORM IS
SURROUNDED BY DRY AIR AND WILL BE MOVING OVER MARGINAL SSTS FOR THE
NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. AS A RESULT OF THIS UNFAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT,
CHANTAL IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN TO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION BY 48 H. MOST
OF THE DYNAMICAL MODELS INDICATE THAT THE CYCLONE WILL LOSE ALL OF
ITS CONVECTION AND BECOME POST-TROPICAL SOON AFTER, BUT THE OFFICIAL
FORECAST CONSERVATIVELY MAINTAINS THE SYSTEM AS A TROPICAL CYCLONE
FOR 72 H. THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST IS NEAR A CONSENSUS OF THE
GFS, HMON, AND HWRF MODELS.

THE TROPICAL STORM IS MOVING QUICKLY EASTWARD, BUT IS FORECAST TO
SLOW AND TURN SOUTHEASTWARD BY THURSDAY. IT SHOULD THEN TURN TOWARD
THE SOUTH ON FRIDAY AS IT MOVES AROUND THE NORTHEAST PERIPHERY OF A
LOW- TO MID-LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC. THE
TRACK GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE FORECAST, AT LEAST AS
LONG AS CHANTAL REMAINS A TROPICAL CYCLONE. THE UNCERTAINTY IN THE
TRACK FORECAST IS HIGHER AFTER THE CYCLONE BECOMES A REMNANT LOW,
BUT MOST OF THE GUIDANCE GENERALLY SUGGESTS THAT CHANTAL WILL BECOME
TRAPPED IN WEAK STEERING FLOW AND MEANDER OVER THE NORTH ATLANTIC
FOR A COUPLE DAYS THEREAFTER.
 
Chantal has weakened to a tropical depression as of the 11 PM update. It is expected to be post-tropical within 48 hours.
 
You must log in or register to reply here.
Back
Top