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Wintry Canadian Low Temps for Jan 6 from 240hrs ago

Stormsfury

Stormsfury

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So 10 days ago, the Canadian or GDPS progged some very insane cols temperatures for Jan 6th, 2018 back in late December. So how will it all verify?

Map on the next post...
 
GDPS 240hr Temp Prog
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01/06/2018
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At 8 AM temperature at KCHS is 24° compared to the 16° progged back on 12/27/17. Ironically, on memory it had snow cover depth of about 2" progged for the area and there are many locations that still have 2" plus in the Tri-County, sheltered areas more.

Locally, 18° was the low (revised after ILM confirmed for CHS on graphic)

Compare your 8am observation against the graphic above with the nearest location so we can grade this arctic blast for this date.
 
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Cmc has NC entirely below 0. Where's there's snow cover and the wind dies off they'll make a solid run at 0 tinight. We have brown ground and bottom out around 6 or 7 every night.

I will say this about cmc from 10 days ago. It had the right idea no doubt. Those lows would be all time record lows. This cold wave will go down as #1 for longevity. Very impressI've and hard to beleive Raleigh will have spent the entire year below freezing and it's Jan 7th tommorow. It will be a long time before alot of us see something of this magnitude again. ESPEACILLY Savannah, Charleston and rest of Carolina coastal communities and tidewater area. I was in High School when we had that outbreak in the 80s setting the all time record lows that still stand today in NC. Remember it well.
 
At the closest reporting station it was about 6 degrees off, however there were isolated pockets of -3 to -4 in the county this morning.
 
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Nice bust for sure. But also to be slightly fair, I think that was a run when cmc had a wide swath of snow on the ground? I don't remember
 
deltadog03 said:
Nice bust for sure. But also to be slightly fair, I think that was a run when cmc had a wide swath of snow on the ground? I don't remember
Click to expand...

It actually was with some snow cover but mostly east. I believe this was when the GDPS had a 1056mb high around this tine but it dropped south on progs but ended up moving more east.
 
Stormsfury said:
It actually was with some snow cover but mostly east. I believe this was when the GDPS had a 1056mb high around this tine but it dropped south on progs but ended up moving more east.
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Ah ok. Oh for the record, I don't think winter is done yet
 
deltadog03 said:
Ah ok. Oh for the record, I don't think winter is done yet
Click to expand...

Looks like a January Thaw later this week. As of today, another sub 20° low at KCHS and Summerville but not as cold as expected. 19° CHS, 18° KDYB. NE winds kept temps up (dewpoints 1° to 3°).
 
-8 here this morning, Roanoke Rapids -4, Ahoskie -8, Sanford -3 and Washington -2 (extremely impressive considering proximity to the coast).... all areas with snow cover. This has been impressive but brutal, I'm ready for my heat pump to take a break.

Sent from my SM-G920V using Tapatalk
 
We all are ready I think for a break.
19° KCHS, unbelievable since normally we go many winters without a sub 20 reading here. (34 was yesterday's high... first 6 days, Charleston has been below 40° all 6 days...38° was the warmest on the 5th.). (Normal high is 59°.. Normal low is 37°)
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Yeah, the CMC cold bias is for real and significant. Just today's 0Z run had a low progged for Myrtle Beach of 10. The actual low was near 15 (still amazingly cold, of course, but that's irrelevant).

The CMC cold bias appears to be worst with overdone radiational cooling. OTOH, I don't think the cold bias includes wedging situations.

The CMC prog for Florence's low tonight is high single digits. Compare this to the NWS fcast of near 21. Let's see how the CMC does with this.

Aside: It is a rarity to see 1040 mb SLP in SC but that happened late AM today!
 
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GaWx said:
Yeah, the CMC cold bias is for real and significant. Just today's 0Z run had a low progged for Myrtle Beach of 10. The actual low was near 15 (still amazingly cold, of course, but that's irrelevant).

The CMC cold bias appears to be worst with overdone radiational cooling. OTOH, I don't think the cold bias includes wedging situations.

The CMC prog for Florence's low tonight is high single digits. Compare this to the NWS fcast of near 21. Let's see how the CMC does with this.

Aside: It is a rarity to see 1040 mb SLP in SC but that happened late AM today!
Click to expand...
The observed low at KFLO was 8 early this morning.

Sent from my SM-N950U using Tapatalk
 
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