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Pattern August Rush 2020

SD said:
It's fascinating to me to see both the UK and Euro take the sfc low along the NC/Va border and have diddly for rain south of the CoC.
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Maybe lack of instability/extremely skinny cape ? we’ve done more with less several times Tho when it comes to
Instability
 
Myfrotho704_ said:
Maybe lack of instability/extremely skinny cape ? we’ve done more with less several times Tho when it comes to
Instability
Click to expand...
Not going to lie, very confused here. You would expect at least 1 band of convection tied into the center extending south if not a couple. Maybe it's because of the crappy MLLLR's or there is a capping layer in there somewhere but the overall look to me screams storms firing in the apps or the lee and rolling east.
 
SD said:
Not going to lie, very confused here. You would expect at least 1 band of convection tied into the center extending south if not a couple. Maybe it's because of the crappy MLLLR's or there is a capping layer in there somewhere but the overall look to me screams storms firing in the apps or the lee and rolling east.
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Around 400-750 jkgs of cape, even with poor mid level lapse rates I agree all you really need for these types of setups with plenty of shear is some low level instability to get some severe lot topped stuff going 9B74D363-201E-434B-BED6-91429837E852.png2A7FEBE4-A37C-4519-A0C8-AF210D97521F.png
 
SD said:
Not going to lie, very confused here. You would expect at least 1 band of convection tied into the center extending south if not a couple. Maybe it's because of the crappy MLLLR's or there is a capping layer in there somewhere but the overall look to me screams storms firing in the apps or the lee and rolling east.
Click to expand...
SD said:
Not going to lie, very confused here. You would expect at least 1 band of convection tied into the center extending south if not a couple. Maybe it's because of the crappy MLLLR's or there is a capping layer in there somewhere but the overall look to me screams storms firing in the apps or the lee and rolling east.
Click to expand...
I’m beginning to wonder if it’s just something that needs to worked out by higher resolution models as we get closer. Everything with that set up screams there should be a significant severe weather outbreak in the NC and northern SC on Saturday.
 
SD said:
Not going to lie, very confused here. You would expect at least 1 band of convection tied into the center extending south if not a couple. Maybe it's because of the crappy MLLLR's or there is a capping layer in there somewhere but the overall look to me screams storms firing in the apps or the lee and rolling east.
Click to expand...
I bet there would be some weak upslope rotating showers from upstate South Carolina that pivot north-East across all of central NC into Virginia with that look. That’s something that won’t be picked up until a day or two out on the NAM.
 
Chazwin said:
I’m beginning to wonder if it’s just something that needs to worked out by higher resolution models as we get closer. Everything with that set up screams there should be a significant severe weather outbreak in the NC and northern SC on Saturday.
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Yeah I wonder if the models are tying most of the forcing directly to the circulation itself instead of spreading the better forcing and ascent south across the area. The Icon really seemed to me to be a fairly reasonable outcome
 
SD said:
Yeah I wonder if the models are tying most of the forcing directly to the circulation itself instead of spreading the better forcing and ascent south across the area. The Icon really seemed to me to be a fairly reasonable outcome
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In a way it’s somewhat similar to a MCV setup which globals sometime really struggle with forcing outside of the MCV itself, if there’s a uncapped environment with cape in the low levels i agree with the icon like you do
 
Those dewpointss are really out of control today. Mid to upper 70s across much of the south. Dewpoint of 76 in Atlanta is about the highest you will ever see there.
 
Brett Adair mentioned that the Baron 3k shows a mini-supercell outbreak in Alabama on Friday
 
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