Pattern April Oven

[ChrisAMB]

So far the drought hasn't slowed down my grass. Goodness; if we're going to have a major drought at least give me a break on having to mow.

Down here in the sandy parts even the weeds have died.

 

[Shaggy]

Due to the coastal geography of Long Bay (SC) and Onslow Bay (NC) we get some incredibly strong seabreeze boundaries pretty much every day from mid-late April through about the first week of August. Once the shelf waters warm up enough they reduce quite a bit. I'm talking 20 mph or more sustained as it roars inland past I-95. The seabreeze effect isn't anywhere near as strong further up in NC and further south into the lowcountry of SC and GA.

A neat thing is due to the shape of the coast there's a convergence zone right around Bolivia, NC where the boundaries collide. That area is almost guaranteed a seabreeze generated storm during the summer.

We often get crashing seabreezes here in Wilmington as one comes north and one from the east

 

[SD]

Pattern change is coming

 

[FallsLake]

Pattern change is coming

I also believe that but we'll have to go through another two weeks of continued dry weather. Below is the 6z euro AI showing total QPF at day 12. Most other models also show a similar look.


The longer range CFS shows the rains coming the following two weeks (weeks 3 & 4). This would be the pattern change.

 

[SD]

I also believe that but we'll have to go through another two weeks of continued dry weather. Below is the 6z euro AI showing total QPF at day 12. Most other models also show a similar look.
View attachment 195477

The longer range CFS shows the rains coming the following two weeks (weeks 3 & 4). This would be the pattern change.
View attachment 195478

Euro suite was a banger minus the AI. Once we get the AN height anoms out of the mid latitudes it's probably going to turn the hose on.

 

[jackendrickwx]

until the front gets involved this is about as tight of an ensemble envelope as you could ask for as a forecaster lol

 

[SD]

until the front gets involved this is about as tight of an ensemble envelope as you could ask for as a forecaster lol

View attachment 195481

Wen 90s

 

[jackendrickwx]

Wen 90s

euro has been off by 5-8F on lows at D3-5 range lately too lol

 

[SD]

low to mid 90s on Saturday to mid 40s on Monday morning will be quite the change

 

[jackendrickwx]

dig the vort a little more and squeeze some april 20th snowflakes out in the high country. it's probably close enough to get flurries on mount rogers as is on the 00z euro

would be abnormal to get through all of april with zero high-elevation snow in the southern apps

 

[Tarheel1]

Can’t find the severe thread, but this is from N IA this evening! I did not take the pic

 

[Tarheel1]

Can’t find the severe thread, but this is from N IA this evening! I did not take the picView attachment 195484View attachment 195485

One more! Apparently very photogenic and seen by a lot of people!

 

[Tarheel1]

This looks fun!

 

[Brent]

Might be my turn again the next few days

3 out of 4 days with higher end threats is pretty crazy here

 

[SD]

Lol

 

[jackendrickwx]

euro ai with a fantasy land ULL parking overhead #needthat

 

[Tarheel1]

Sketchy afternoon here!!

 

[Shaggy]

Sketchy afternoon here!!View attachment 195499View attachment 195500

That cell north of Des Moines already looking ominus

 

[Shaggy]

Brandon Copic already on it and it has a huge wall cloud already

 

[Shaggy]

This storm produced a tornado in quick order.
If this is any indicator of how today goes its gonna be a bad afternoon