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Wintry April Fools? (1-2) Surprise Storm

Found this on TOS regarding the 18z Euro. This may add some weight to what the HRRR and RAP have been showing this evening.

“After moving NW for a few runs, the Euro has moved SE with the precip shield in its last 2 runs including the new 18z run. Greenville and west gets less than a tenth on this run. Charlotte is around 0.25”
 
What gets me is I'm looking at radar and see all of this precipitation in Louisiana starting to get into Mississippi and Alabama and no model is picking this up but this could turn out to be a big part of our system.
 
snowlover91 said:
Well I'd rather be wrong and folks out west see a nice snow event but there have been some red flags on this event that has me cautious. The qpf output is everywhere right now with models but recent trends have not been good. We need to see what the 00z model guidance shows and how radar develops overnight, I do think the cutoff on this will be quite sharp on the NW edge of the precipitation shield.
Click to expand...
April being a giant ?!
 
Ethan80963 said:
What gets me is I'm looking at radar and see all of this precipitation in Louisiana starting to get into Mississippi and Alabama and no model is picking this up but this could turn out to be a big part of our system.
Click to expand...

The HRRR composite reflectivity actually shows it pretty well, it’s just so light it doesn’t show up on the qpf charts or the sim reflectivity radar.

7D3EA278-EBF1-4F8C-8779-4F8B3E104396.jpeg
 
This run of the hrrr is a slight improvement, tiny shift west in precip sheild, very tiny but low pressure is a tad stronger and closer, better than continuing that eastward trend
 
Nice amount of precip associated with the upper level energy in MS/LA. Could help folks in SC/NC with pulling moisture further inland as it moves east and the trof starts going neg. tilt. I think the upper level energy is key to snow for folks in places like Greenville and Charlotte. NAM has the 500mb energy continue to strengthen until it closes off in NE SC.
 
IMO I see the precip in AL/MS/LA either aiding in getting moisture into our system or just combining with the system.
 
This axis of snow is honestly looking more likely blending in all the models, NAM 12km was probably much more realistic this run, still has a very narrow band of heavy snow, I’m in it so I’m good where I’m at, hrrr kinda looked a tad better and has snow back around CLT, like I said I think that axis from southern CLT to Salisbury looks OK 580F6BE3-6915-4667-9DDA-95CD2E80A4B2.png
 
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