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Severe April 4-5th Possible severe weather event

Myfrotho704_

Myfrotho704_

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These soundings out of Mississippi/Louisiana are nasty, curved hodo, SRH of 300-450, lots of sfc moisture and a good moist column, low LCLs, moderate-large CAPE, instability doesn’t look like much of a issue unless we get lots of crapvection, I was so worried about snow and didn’t see this until now, this is definitely a concerning sounding D060EE10-3D10-4920-94E8-CC2B389EA698.png
 
Pretty nasty, 850 winds are a little bit on the weaker side but thi sounding is still ugly, lots of 3CAPE aswell with good amounts of sfc moisture
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I wonder if the warm sector will get into alabama, from each new NAM run it gets closer. A thing to watch though will be convection on the gulf coast models indicate some which will lessen the moisture flow further north.
 
Looks like the good wind shear outruns the CAPE. But there seems to be a good combo around south mississippi and east Louisiana in the storm complex that stays near the coast.
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Sounding out of Louisiana from the 3km NAM, this supports damaging winds with that moist column then dry air entrainment aloft, also hail with a decent HGZ and low Freezing levels (WB at 700mb aswell) and shear to help hail growth, this weakly supports tornadoes aswell altho stronger veering winds throughout the soundings is not much present, these soundings mainly support HP supercells with strong RFDs/FFDs and /or organized multicellular clusters with microbursts/ damaging winds with hail in the strongest cores A6957D7A-6D37-4F1D-A84D-16A6BA3329ED.png
 
Though the latest 18z HRRR still hasn't fully loaded, it shows that the CAP will stay intact in most of the southern part of the severe area. Instead of Texas/OK border, it shows some convection occurring along the OK/KS border. If a storm can break through int he southern part, it could be a decent hailer, if I'm reading things correctly.
 
This sounding definitely supports supercells but winds are not strongly veering throughout this sounding, still a decent sounding tho with a CAP and EML with that near dry adiabatic lapse rate, shear/SRH is decent, low level instability is ok but low level lapses aren’t the best, this sounding like the one I mentioned earlier supports damaging winds due to dry air entrainment and water loading with rain/hail falling into dry air entrainment aloft arguing for damaging winds/microbursts, also the decent DCAPE, likely why storms will have strong RFD/FFDs, anyways that’s a nice curved hodo, for hail this sounding has decent CAPE in the HGZ (-10 to -30 C), steep mid level lapse rates due to that EML, WBZ at 700 hPa argues for hailers 95D99831-D87A-4F70-992B-BE87578F389D.png
 
Have a feeling a good bit of the risk area will be trimmed back. LA and south MS look interesting though. South MS has very high SRH helicity values but the NAM isnt sold on bringing moisture that far north, will have to wait and see what the HRRR thinks about it. Screenshot_20190402-213952_Samsung Internet.jpgScreenshot_20190402-213639_Samsung Internet.jpgScreenshot_20190402-213857_Samsung Internet.jpg
 
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this sounding i suppose could support a few tornadoes and that low end chance of a stronger one, its just that winds are not strongly veered in this sounding but its enough, also with extremely low LCLs, cloud bases will literaly be on the ground, can see that classic EML with that cap, hodo is curved, SRH is ok, low level lapse rates are meh but low level instability is decent, needa watch any storm that becomes discreet near the best wind shear
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if winds were veering stronger aloft, this would be a near loaded gun sounding, also SRH is a little low end, but this sounding supports very large hail with a EML, fat hail growth zone, dry air aloft and WBZ at 850 hpa ! i would not be suprised if a strong tornado happens with this event
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Long Range HRRR shows some good updrafts developing. STPs are near a 9 or 10 out in some locations across LA. If Cell becomes dominant in that STP zone which is were the highest updraft helicity swaths are there might be a violent tornado. I expect a enhanced area at least in that general area.Screenshot_20190403-150438_Samsung Internet.jpgScreenshot_20190403-150506_Samsung Internet.jpgScreenshot_20190403-150412_Samsung Internet.jpg
 
LCL heights are basically on the ground with this setup, and SRH helicity is more than adequate. With CAPE around 2500-3000j
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These soundings are close to supporting some strong tornadoes tommorow, especially that third one, has strong veering winds aloft, but anyways the NAM gets everything quickly merging into organized multicellular clusters/semi-discrete supercells, i would imagine with a Cap things may be a little delayed, or things are more discrete
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The storms further south that develop in south mississippi and northern half of lousiana will need to be watched because if no storms are below it, and they become and stay cellular itll have a good chance of producing a tornado. Another thing is how far moisture can make it into south MS as well, because some models dont have that happening.
 
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