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Tropical TS Erin

The 12Z CMC, like its recent runs, is significantly further S than other models at 171 (just ENE of PR) with it again much weaker than other models at 1003 mb. It isn’t recurving as it is underneath an extensive H5 ridge:

IMG_4312.png

Edit: ends up near Andros I. moving NW toward FL.
 
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GEFS is still rolling, but from what I can tell, it has a weaker system so far compared to the most recent runs as the mean.

Edit: Also seems as if it's conflicted on the idea of what happens. There's one batch that's further southeast and another batch that's further northwest and more consolidated at just west of 60W.

Edit2: Looks like the mean is going to recurve, don't feel like continuing the run.
 
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GeorgiaGirl said:
GEFS is still rolling, but from what I can tell, it has a weaker system so far compared to the most recent runs as the mean.

Edit: Also seems as if it's conflicted on the idea of what happens. There's one batch that's further southeast and another batch that's further northwest and more consolidated at just west of 60W.
Click to expand...
 
Eastern Tropical Atlantic (AL97):
A broad area of low pressure, associated with a tropical wave, is
producing a large area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms
just off the west coast of Africa. Environmental conditions appear
conducive for gradual development of this system, and a tropical
depression could form by the middle to latter portion of next week
while moving west-northwestward at 15 to 20 mph across the eastern
and central tropical Atlantic. Locally heavy rainfall is possible
Sunday and Monday across portions of the Cabo Verde Islands.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...50 percent.
0/50
 
GFS looks like it might be a NE hit (edit: it is) after it gets uncomfortably close to NC.

I know that this is for entertainment purposes only right now, but any other storms besides Sandy involving the NE?
 
0/60.
Eastern Tropical Atlantic (AL97):
A broad area of low pressure, associated with a tropical wave, is
producing a large area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms
just off the west coast of Africa. Environmental conditions appear
conducive for gradual development of this system, and a tropical
depression could form by the middle to latter portion of next week
while moving west-northwestward at 15 to 20 mph across the eastern
and central tropical Atlantic. Locally heavy rainfall is possible
Sunday and Monday across portions of the Cabo Verde Islands.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...60 percent.
 
97L looks like a classic Outer Banks storm with some effects being felt there even if the center passes well offshore according to the GFS. The intensity will need to be watched carefully. If 97L is weaker than models are showing so far, then it might move closer to the Outer Banks or even inland due to the tendency for weaker storms to move further west before making the northerly turn they make when influenced by a high pressure. The Northeast needs to keep its eyes on this developing tropical system for a later landfall.
 
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The Euro stalls 97L just off the eastern coast of Florida for about 24 hours before it moves north for a landfall on the Georgia/South Carolina border. Another difference between it and the GFS is the intensity of the hurricane. The Euro has a maximum intensity of around 955mb while the GFS bombs it out about 20mb lower off the Outer Banks. The important thing at this point is that most of the models are giving a strong signal for a potentially strong hurricane developing and possibly affecting the Eastern Seaboard.
 
The 0Z UKMET for some reason doesn’t classify this as a TC. I’d like to see the WxBell or weather.us maps once they’re released to see why. From what I can tell on Pivotal, there still is a sfc low.
 
lexxnchloe said:
JB weeps. You cant beat the CFS for pattern recognition. CFS shows nothing of interest for its entire run
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Well he can get over it 😂

Not like we haven't had plenty of hurricanes since 2017 anyway

I can't even believe how many landfalls we've had since then honestly. It's unheard of in modern records and I mean some year it's gonna end

We've gone 3 years without a hurricane landfall twice this century
 
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I know with the slow start some are gonna be disappointed if this goes OTS
But I can’t stress enough how much of a disaster a direct hit on Charleston would be

I don’t want to downplay any landfall but, it floods if somebody leaves the faucet on too long down there
 
The Euro Ai was in Texas last night and now at the same time frame at 06 it in the Bahamas. The 06z GEFS has a large west shift to a more threatening look.

Meanwhile as we debate this the system is still south of the cape Verde islands.
 
MichaelAndrews said:
I know with the slow start some are gonna be disappointed if this goes OTS
But I can’t stress enough how much of a disaster a direct hit on Charleston would be

I don’t want to downplay any landfall but, it floods if somebody leaves the faucet on too long down there
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Exactly and I don't even understand why people are acting like the season depends on landfalls. How many have we had lately? Like I said we've never had a stretch like this to have so many year after year anyway. Yes I'm aware it's not as flashy and whatever but the chasers have had plenty of opportunities to go chase lately. They can whine if they want but they also know it's barely August and nobody knows what's gonna happen

We don't even know for sure this wave is OTS yet on August 10th!!

And even if this goes OTS when was Helene and Milton last year?
 
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Been doing this awhile with a bunch of you. 😀
It always comes down to within 3-5 days of a landfall event. So really this is all entertainment and distraction until August 17, let's say. Until then it will be watching a storm moving at its leisure through the Atlantic.
The sad part is thr majority of folks on the coast have no plan and no prep. When Hugo hit Charleston in 1989, there were about 300,000 people there. Not it's exploded to over 1 million who would be impacted with the majority never experiencing a cat3-4 with no plan.
 
Shaggy said:
We can't even get run to run consistency on the ensembles.

View attachment 174077
Click to expand...

Wasn't awake for 0z last night, but this is what I should've probably noticed first here over the 6z GFS recurving (edit: and I noticed that the 18z ensemble suite became less certain yesterday). Yikes.

According to the ensemble suite, it seemingly suggests anything from a Florida landfall to a safe recurve is possible. Good luck!
 
Henry2326 said:
Been doing this awhile with a bunch of you. 😀
It always comes down to within 3-5 days of a landfall event. So really this is all entertainment and distraction until August 17, let's say. Until then it will be watching a storm moving at its leisure through the Atlantic.
The sad part is thr majority of folks on the coast have no plan and no prep. When Hugo hit Charleston in 1989, there were about 300,000 people there. Not it's exploded to over 1 million who would be impacted with the majority never experiencing a cat3-4 with no plan.
Click to expand...

Right theres so many places on the coast that are way more populated and haven't been hit yeah and most people just don't care enough to have a plan. I mean people don't know where they live on a map to begin with. How can they prepare for a hurricane?

And it's gonna be very ugly when they do eventually get hit one day
 
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