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Tropical 93L

Canadian ensemble mean brings it over Florida into gulf, GEFS mean brings it into south Georgia in 48 hours. Who are you betting on?
 
weather bubba said:
I just took a look at the water temperatures in the Gulf and when 93L gets into the Northern Gulf there will be plenty of warm water to work with if it wants to develop. The question, for me at least, is what kind of shape will it be in after it crosses Florida?
Click to expand...
May blow up before it gets to FL.
 
East of the Florida Peninsula into the Northeastern Gulf (AL93):
An area of low pressure located offshore of the east coast of
Florida continues to produce disorganized showers and thunderstorms
primarily south of the center. This system is forecast to move
westward across the Florida Peninsula on Tuesday and Tuesday night,
eventually moving into the northeastern Gulf by the middle part of
this week. Environmental conditions appear generally favorable for
additional development if the system remains offshore, and a
tropical depression could form as the system moves across the
northeastern and north-central Gulf by the middle to latter part of
this week.

Regardless of development, heavy rainfall could produce localized
flash flooding over portions of Florida and the north-central Gulf
coast through the middle to latter portion of this week.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...40 percent
Click to expand...
30/40
 
King Icon!

If this does develop into a hurricane before landfall, ICON gets the King prefix for a while.

I think it is still more disorganized than it may seem at a glance. BUT, nothing is set in stone. Shear should not be too strong, and the water temps are very favorable. IF it can develop a core quickly, then it could be an impactful storm. Either way, it will be a significant rain-maker for Florida and the Gulf coastal sections.
 
weather bubba said:
I just took a look at the water temperatures in the Gulf and when 93L gets into the Northern Gulf there will be plenty of warm water to work with if it wants to develop. The question, for me at least, is what kind of shape will it be in after it crosses Florida?
Click to expand...
That and where ( how far north/south) it ejects off of Floridas gulf coast!
 
The 18Z UKMET, which shows a 1004 TC at hour 66 at the tip of the SE LA boot (see below), is 6 mb stronger than the 12Z UKMET’s 1010 mb at hour 72. The 12Z run was too weak to be classified as a TC.

IMG_4025.png
 
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