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Severe 4/28-30 2020 Severe Chance

BirdManDoomW said:
Brad is terrible he didn’t expect tornado warnings for Charlotte when upstate had those three supercells. Numerous times he tells viewers last minute once it’s actually on the doorstep never in advance.
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Low probability events can still happen. And having one weak tornado on the ground isn’t exactly a huge contradiction to what he said. Elevated thunderstorms are what we expected and that’s pretty much what we got.


ryan1234 said:
Pretty much matches what Brad said on his VLOG. He is not too concerned about the chances for severe weather. The MCV is an interesting feature though. It's just odd to have so many varying thoughts. GSP says yes, SPC says meh, as does Brad. Someone has to be wrong, question is... who?
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SPC did move the 2% tor risk area northeastward a bit with the latest update and Brad has mentioned the chance for QLCS spinups. I think the main difference between GSP and everyone else is that they threw that “strong tornado” wording in there, which seems unlikely to me.
 
Storms are beginning to form in N. AL and TN. This is going to be another nowcasting event, once again.
 
BirdManDoomW said:
Brad is terrible he didn’t expect tornado warnings for Charlotte when upstate had those three supercells. Numerous times he tells viewers last minute once it’s actually on the doorstep never in advance.
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Brad did a pretty good job during last week's event, actually. That man works so hard when severe weather strikes. He doesn't deserve that kind of ridicule. Meteorology is not an exact science, and with events like this with so many moving pieces, it's really hard to predict the outcome until storms start firing.
 
Moving on, TN storms looking better and growing. May need a severe watch for east TN?
 
Heavy rain just pushed through Smyrna and left it muggy.. Wonder if that line in East Alabama will push further south..
 
Man, it sure is quiet today on this thread. I was looking forward to tracking something, even if it was an elevated storm. The line coming through the Upstate has a little 'tude with it, but will it make it across the Piedmont?
 
ryan1234 said:
Man, it sure is quiet today on this thread. I was looking forward to tracking something, even if it was an elevated storm. The line coming through the Upstate has a little 'tude with it, but will it make it across the Piedmont?
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18z hrrr was meh for me. Shows a line but we have less than ideal timing with early morning again, under 600 MuCape but it spits out a weak tornado sounding.
 

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As @SD mentioned I’d watch the hail threat tommorow in western NC-central NC, would most likely be storms with lots of small hail with this look but still, low level shear looks to lack but deep layer shear looks pretty solid along with dry air aloft DC8BDD65-1181-4D3D-BAED-B55D6B755891.png
 
Not much going on out there right now. 66 here.

Guess we'll see if anything pops over the next few hours
 
BufordWX said:
Getting my second downpour of the day right now. It is really dark here.
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Just had a very heavy downpour. Picked up about half an inch in the last 30 minutes. With that I am closing in on almost an inch of rain for today. Also had quite a bit of wind with that shower too.
 
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