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Severe 4/28-30 2020 Severe Chance

May have two lines to deal with. Maybe the first can cool things off and weaken the second line. Timing sucks.
 
Maybe we over perform if SPC doesn’t hype the outlook from marginal risk. Slight risk would scream bust.
 
Really getting all aboard the flash floof threat tonight. Slow moving, good atlantic inflow, possibly more than 1 line or groups of cells. Recipe for a widespread inch with pockets of 2-3
 
My weather app mentions no storms just heavy rain. I don’t think most people know about thunderstorm chance.
 
Pretty robust leftover mesoscale convective vortex (MCV) is evident on visible in eastern Alabama, and is causing local backing of the surface winds there. The additional low-level shear, moisture transport, & lift afforded by the eastern-southeastern flank of this MCV will become a hot spot for new convective development in Georgia and the western portion of the Carolinas later this afternoon & evening & it'll likely provide a legit wave of pre-frontal convection a few-several hours before the primary squall line comes knocking.

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Pretty robust leftover mesoscale convective vortex (MCV) is evident on visible in eastern Alabama, and is causing local backing of the surface winds there. The additional low-level shear, moisture transport, & lift afforded by the eastern-southeastern flank of this MCV will become a hot spot for new convective development in Georgia and the western portion of the Carolinas later this afternoon & evening & it'll likely provide a legit wave of pre-frontal convection a few-several hours before the primary squall line comes knocking.

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Like I said, two rounds. The main line will move into rain cooler air around 3am-5am. Meh.
 
Lol. I just saw the new SPC outlook from this morning and it continues to shrink. I am not bashing them, at all. Does anyone know if they have fewer people working there or something related to the shelter-in-place? I think I am going to stick with listening to GSP for today though.
 
Pretty robust leftover mesoscale convective vortex (MCV) is evident on visible in eastern Alabama, and is causing local backing of the surface winds there. The additional low-level shear, moisture transport, & lift afforded by the eastern-southeastern flank of this MCV will become a hot spot for new convective development in Georgia and the western portion of the Carolinas later this afternoon & evening & it'll likely provide a legit wave of pre-frontal convection a few-several hours before the primary squall line comes knocking.

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That is an interesting feature for sure.
 
Round one is largely after 9pm. Round two in TN is wee hours of the morning. 2148DAD4-EE8C-4602-A0A8-3230E11790E4.jpeg
 
I’m under a Slight Risk now for Flooding with Flash Flood Watch. Plants will be happy.
 
Models were a couple of hours slow on this one yesterday right? Or was I imagining things.
It’s different when you have mountains and upslope that can wring out moisture and thus delay the movement East a hair. I fully expect most will sleep through this unless your in the mountains with better timing.
 
Pretty robust leftover mesoscale convective vortex (MCV) is evident on visible in eastern Alabama, and is causing local backing of the surface winds there. The additional low-level shear, moisture transport, & lift afforded by the eastern-southeastern flank of this MCV will become a hot spot for new convective development in Georgia and the western portion of the Carolinas later this afternoon & evening & it'll likely provide a legit wave of pre-frontal convection a few-several hours before the primary squall line comes knocking.

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I suspect that mesolow is going to ruin the severe weather chances for Metro ATL, Western GA and Eastern AL, which is what NWS BHM predicted.
 
I tell ya what, the NWS just flat out isn't impressed with this set up developing tonight. I mean, they haven't budged.
 
And there goes the slight risk area...

Pretty much matches what Brad said on his VLOG. He is not too concerned about the chances for severe weather. The MCV is an interesting feature though. It's just odd to have so many varying thoughts. GSP says yes, SPC says meh, as does Brad. Someone has to be wrong, question is... who?
 
Pretty much matches what Brad said on his VLOG. He is not too concerned about the chances for severe weather. The MCV is an interesting feature though. It's just odd to have so many varying thoughts. GSP says yes, SPC says meh, as does Brad. Someone has to be wrong, question is... who?
Brad is terrible he didn’t expect tornado warnings for Charlotte when upstate had those three supercells. Numerous times he tells viewers last minute once it’s actually on the doorstep never in advance.
 
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