Severe 4/1-4 2025 Severe Weather

[SD]

 

[Brent]

Another overnight event here

 

[Brent]

Hmmm someone here said could be a way bigger threat than last night IF storms actually get going

Edit: the model on TV is closer to sunrise with not much before that

 

[BufordWX]

Enhanced risk added to the day 2 outlook for Kansas with a hatched tornado risk.

 

[BufordWX]

Enhanced risk added to the day 2 outlook for Kansas with a hatched tornado risk.
View attachment 172143
View attachment 172144

Discussion mentions the potential for “one or more” categorical upgrades in OK/TX.

 

[BufordWX]

Looks like it’s going to be a very active week for parts of AR/MS/TN. These places could very well have rounds of severe storms every day between Wednesday and Saturday. Although you have to take this type of pattern one day at a time since one day will likely affect the next, but it certainly looks like there will be some activity each day. Significant rainfall totals look likely as well. I bet there will be a lot of tired meteorologists in these areas by the end of the weekend.

 

[BufordWX]

Things may be getting interesting for tomorrow evening. I heard the MPAS models apparently tend to do well with dry line events.

 

[BufordWX]

Enhanced risk extended into Oklahoma on the new day 1 outlook.

 

[Rain Cold]

Things may be getting interesting for tomorrow evening. I heard the MPAS models apparently tend to do well with dry line events.View attachment 172163

If that cap breaks, look out.

 

[BufordWX]

HRRR is now breaking out discrete supercells this evening.

 

[Southern Track]

HRRR is now breaking out discrete supercells this evening.View attachment 172165

Man, hope that depiction is false.

 

[BufordWX]

Mike Morgan sounding the alarm.

 

[jrips27]

 

[BufordWX]

Dont they only do these for moderate risks? Upgrade incoming?

 

[BufordWX]

Tomorrow has gone moderate now.

 

[jrips27]

 

[BufordWX]

Tomorrow looks pretty significant for parts of AR/MS/TN/KY. However, even beyond Wednesday this is gonna be a marathon of active weather for those areas. SPC has slight risks out Thursday, Friday, and Saturday for some of the same areas. Major flooding looks likely as well. Really hope folks in those areas stay safe this week.

 

[BufordWX]

NWS Little Rock put out a PDS flood watch for their area, and mentions this week’s flood potential as a “once in a generation to once in a lifetime” event.

 

[BufordWX]

Tornado watch issued.

 

[Rain Cold]

I wish there was a place to get this.

 

[BufordWX]

Cell going up in northern OK is quickly developing. Already seeing rotation in mid levels.

 

[BufordWX]

Doesn’t look like much is going to happen this evening. The few storms that did develop some are starting to wane. Some models hint at development again overnight, but we’ll have to see.

 

[Brent]

Looks like a big April Fools here today

Not that I'm complaining

 

[BufordWX]

They issued an MCD basically saying to stick a fork in the severe threat. Lol

 

[NWMSGuy]

0Z run of the HRRR with activity moving into the Mid-South tomorrow.

 

[Jimmy Hypocracy]

This is going to produce I’m afraid

 

[BufordWX]

PDS tornado warning in Kansas.