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Severe 3/27-3/31 2025 Severe

Today’s enhanced risk is the largest day 1 enhanced issued by the SPC.

Still think the main threats will be wind and hail, but tornado threat likely greatest during the late afternoon into early evening from SE MO/NE AR into W KY and TN. Although, I’m not too impressed by the overall tornado threat with this system.1743353153425.gif
 
NEW AFD FROM BIRMINGHAM

.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight through Monday Night)
Issued at 700 PM CDT SUN MAR 30 2025

The stable capping is beginning to set up over the area, putting a
squash on much of the precipitation, at least for the next 4 to 7
hours. We have made some minor adjustments on the severe timing
with a slower start but then increasing speed as it moves through
the area. A good consensus of the short range models are now
really hitting at the one line of storms moving through early
morning through early afternoon. Have adjusted the timing in the
forecast and will still need to adjust the thunder probabilities.
This will be updated soon. If we truly see the MCS move through in
one swoop, there will not be much to work with in the afternoon,
resulting in generally just showers and perhaps a rumble of
thunder as the front. Most of the precipitation should be out of
the southeast by late afternoon, with clearing Monday night of the
clouds. There may be just enough low level moisture in the far
south/southeast that dense fog may develop around 3 AM and persist
for a few hours before moving back south of the area after
sunrise. Will need to monitor that scenario, so included in the
GHWO but will not issue any other products due to the conditional
situation.
 
Haven’t been following this too closely from an Atlanta perspective but hey this is different then our usual 3am slopfest. Storms look to move through around 12pm or so give or take a couple of hours which is different.

Not sure I see much of a tornado threat but it’s at least possible. Biggest threat looks to be damaging winds if the line can coalesce and rejuvenate a bit with some daytime heating.

It’s something to watch though!
 
jrips27 said:
Haven’t been following this too closely from an Atlanta perspective but hey this is different then our usual 3am slopfest. Storms look to move through around 12pm or so give or take a couple of hours which is different.

Not sure I see much of a tornado threat but it’s at least possible. Biggest threat looks to be damaging winds if the line can coalesce and rejuvenate a bit with some daytime heating.

It’s something to watch though!
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The HRRR isn't buying the energy NAM is selling. Both show a strong line of storms moving through sometime between 11-3ish. Maybe some isolated descrete supercells out in front.

It will be interesting to see how much CAPE we have tomorrow morning going into noon time. Looking more like a straight wind threat with potential for some lower grade and short-lived spinups. Hope it's that or even less than.
 
Arcc said:
The 12z GFS just screams one of the setups that give us problems in the south and big headaches for the NWS offices. One of those setups where if you break the cap at the right time, you have a extremely dangerous setup. If the cap breaks late, winds veer and big Hail is the main threat.

Looks like a supercellfest.
Click to expand...
Supercells went wild….
 
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