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Tropical 2026 Tropics Thread 🌀

Rain Cold said:
Maybe a .6% chance after the overnight guidance :D
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That wouldn’t be surprising since all but one incoming super-strong El Niño season on record had no 2nd half of July TCG of Atlantic TCs:

2015, 1991, 1982, 1972, 1965, 1957, 1888, and 1877 didn’t. In addition, if you count it, 2023 also had none. Only 1997 did and barely so (July 16th).
 
GaWx said:
That wouldn’t be surprising since all but one incoming super-strong El Niño season on record had no 2nd half of July TCG of Atlantic TCs:

2015, 1991, 1982, 1972, 1965, 1957, 1888, and 1877 didn’t. In addition, if you count it, 2023 also had none. Only 1997 did and barely so (July 16th).
Click to expand...
Yeah that makes sense. However, all of the operational models (with the exception of the GFS - and I haven't looked at any of the 12z stuff) have a big blob of precip in the eastern Gulf. That doesn't mean tropical development, but to me, it implies convection. And if we see a big blob of storms set up out there for a time, we could get a TD maybe. We'll see, but the ensemble support was slashed overnight.
 
Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 AM EDT Wed Jul 15 2026

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of America:

1. Northeastern Gulf of America:
An area of low pressure is expected to form during the weekend over
the northeastern Gulf of America. Subsequent slow development of
this system is possible while it moves slowly northeastward over the
northeastern Gulf and or near the southeastern coast of the United
States by early next week.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...20 percent.

Forecaster Beven

——————
This could be the best case scenario from a helping reduce the SE drought perspective. A not too strong TC that provides beneficial rains (hopefully not flooding obviously).
 
I just noticed that the 0Z UKMET has a TD in the NE GOM from this on Sunday and a TS offshore the SE on Tue:

NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 108 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+108 : 27.8N 83.1W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 19.07.2026 108 27.8N 83.1W 1011 33
0000UTC 20.07.2026 120 28.5N 83.2W 1007 26
1200UTC 20.07.2026 132 29.2N 82.1W 1008 27
0000UTC 21.07.2026 144 30.2N 81.2W 1007 32
1200UTC 21.07.2026 156 32.2N 79.1W 1002 40
0000UTC 22.07.2026 168 34.7N 75.5W 1000 47
 
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NCSNOW said:
Makes it wide right. Might help the surfers out but not the water tables

View attachment 196827
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The UKMET (0Z), after having dropped this from TCG for both Thu runs, brought it back. Also, unlike the 2 Wednesday runs that had it form on Sun in NE Gulf followed by a NE move across FL, this run delays actual TCG til Tue and then moves it slowly WSW as it deepens:

NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 120 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+120 : 28.8N 86.2W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 22.07.2026 120 28.8N 86.2W 1008 32
1200UTC 22.07.2026 132 28.8N 86.6W 1008 33
0000UTC 23.07.2026 144 28.5N 87.5W 1005 39
1200UTC 23.07.2026 156 28.5N 88.6W 1003 40
0000UTC 24.07.2026 168 27.9N 89.5W 995 48
 
GaWx said:
The UKMET (0Z), after having dropped this from TCG for both Thu runs, brought it back. Also, unlike the 2 Wednesday runs that had it form on Sun in NE Gulf followed by a NE move across FL, this run delays actual TCG til Tue and then moves it slowly WSW as it deepens:

NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 120 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+120 : 28.8N 86.2W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 22.07.2026 120 28.8N 86.2W 1008 32
1200UTC 22.07.2026 132 28.8N 86.6W 1008 33
0000UTC 23.07.2026 144 28.5N 87.5W 1005 39
1200UTC 23.07.2026 156 28.5N 88.6W 1003 40
0000UTC 24.07.2026 168 27.9N 89.5W 995 48
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There's an interesting convective blow-up west of Tampa this AM. Some hints of a broad circulation in the area as well. It'll be interesting if this complex sustains or collapses as D-max wanes.
 
image.jpgActually sitting on beach in Bradenton looking at it. It formed right over coast this morning around 2 am - woke me up. Sat for longest and drifted off shore. Now it is moving very little.

Just my luck to be down here for a week and have this going on! 😀🤦‍♂️
 
Wild Weather Monger said:
There's an interesting convective blow-up west of Tampa this AM. Some hints of a broad circulation in the area as well. It'll be interesting if this complex sustains or collapses as D-max wanes.
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12Z UKMET has moved TCG back up to Sunday (AM) and in E GOM. Becomes TS Mon night. It initially moves WNW followed by slowly SW/SSW after hr 144 into N Central GOM, similar to 0Z run (slow movement throughout):

NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 42 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 42 : 26.9N 84.8W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 19.07.2026 48 27.4N 85.1W 1012 25
0000UTC 20.07.2026 60 27.8N 85.7W 1009 26
1200UTC 20.07.2026 72 28.2N 86.5W 1008 27
0000UTC 21.07.2026 84 28.1N 87.3W 1005 31
1200UTC 21.07.2026 96 27.9N 87.5W 1002 38
0000UTC 22.07.2026 108 28.6N 87.6W 1000 43
1200UTC 22.07.2026 120 29.3N 88.2W 1003 44
0000UTC 23.07.2026 132 29.5N 88.6W 1004 35
1200UTC 23.07.2026 144 29.2N 89.1W 1005 33
0000UTC 24.07.2026 156 28.4N 89.5W 1003 36
1200UTC 24.07.2026 168 27.7N 89.7W 1002 40
 
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1. The RRFS, which will replace NAM, has been developing this into a TS.

2. 0Z UKMET moves up TCG to 8PM Saturday and is stronger (winds almost to H strength Tue AM, which is high for the typically conservatively low UK) as it moves mainly slowly W to the NW GOM:

NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 24 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 24 : 27.1N 83.8W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 19.07.2026 24 27.1N 83.8W 1011 27
1200UTC 19.07.2026 36 27.6N 84.5W 1008 30
0000UTC 20.07.2026 48 28.0N 85.0W 1004 30
1200UTC 20.07.2026 60 27.9N 85.1W 1002 33
0000UTC 21.07.2026 72 28.0N 85.4W 999 37
1200UTC 21.07.2026 84 28.9N 85.5W 997 46
0000UTC 22.07.2026 96 29.1N 85.4W 993 56
1200UTC 22.07.2026 108 29.6N 85.4W 995 59
0000UTC 23.07.2026 120 29.2N 86.1W 996 53
1200UTC 23.07.2026 132 28.6N 87.2W 999 44
0000UTC 24.07.2026 144 28.0N 88.6W 998 41
1200UTC 24.07.2026 156 27.6N 89.9W 999 39
0000UTC 25.07.2026 168 29.0N 91.4W 1002 35
 
The thing I'm noticing on the models is the storm looks tiny(even on the NAM that blows it up but it blows up everything)

That's gonna make it very easy to either blow up or conversely... Completely fall apart

I definitely wouldn't hold my breath on anything yet. Long way to go
 
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