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Tropical 2026 Tropics Thread 🌀
- Thread starter SD
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lexxnchloe
Member
Storm One!!
lexxnchloe
Member
We've still got a long ways to go before the start of the hurricane season, but I'd definitely lean to a below-to-near normal season at the moment.
El Niño appears likely to develop by the summer, which will likely increase wind shear over the deep tropics. I'll release a more detailed forecast in late March.
Dr. Levi Cowan had an informative tweet on how ENSO will affect the 2026 Atlantic hurricane season:
El Niño appears likely to develop by the summer, which will likely increase wind shear over the deep tropics. I'll release a more detailed forecast in late March.
Dr. Levi Cowan had an informative tweet on how ENSO will affect the 2026 Atlantic hurricane season:
NoSnowATL
Member
If it doesn’t hit land it doesn't count.
Shaggy
Member
We will need a TC hit to wipe away the 2 year long deficit of 25 inches here
My thoughts on this newest Euro 3.4 prog:
- They’ve generally been getting stronger the last few months.
-This run implies a super Nino peak.
-Keep in mind, however, that this is a prog of ONI, not RONI. RONI currently is ~0.5C lower. So, this implies Aug RONI to be near +2.1 -0.5 = +1.6.
-Keep in mind that the Euro has a warm bias in 3.4 of several tenths. So, a bc prog of RONI could very well be in the low +1s range.