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Tropical 2025 Tropical Thread

We have a long way to go before calendar summer ends in later September. The warm western Atlantic Basin, impressive ITCZ percolation over central Africa and the equatorial Atlantic Ocean and conjoined (Sonoran + Bermudan) subtropical high complex (check out the GRAPES projection posted here) serve as fair warning that lots of heat punctuated by major storms often occur during a negative-neutral ENSO episode that is destined to turn back into a weak/moderate La Nina by the start of fall.





Prepared by Meteorologist LARRY COSGROVE on
Saturday, June 14, 2025 at 11:15 P.M. CT​
 
lexxnchloe said:
We have a long way to go before calendar summer ends in later September. The warm western Atlantic Basin, impressive ITCZ percolation over central Africa and the equatorial Atlantic Ocean and conjoined (Sonoran + Bermudan) subtropical high complex (check out the GRAPES projection posted here) serve as fair warning that lots of heat punctuated by major storms often occur during a negative-neutral ENSO episode that is destined to turn back into a weak/moderate La Nina by the start of fall.





Prepared by Meteorologist LARRY COSGROVE on
Saturday, June 14, 2025 at 11:15 P.M. CT​
Click to expand...

The latest Euro Weeklies, which go through July 13th, have mainly quiet in the Atlantic basin and near normal ACE in the E and W Pacific. If there are no TCs by July 13th, this would mean the quietest start in the Atlantic since 2009! Other years with no NS through July 13th since 1995 were 1998, 2000, 2002, and 2004.

I really wish I could say otherwise (I’d love to finally see a weak season), but I still expect an above normal season. The Atlantic tropics, though not nearly as warm as 2023-4, are still plenty warm enough and expected to continue that way. Also, we’re looking at a ~weak La Niña during ASO per RONI. That combo typically correlates to active seasons including for the corridor from the NE Caribbean through Bahamas, FL, SE US, and E Gulf though I’m still hoping it won’t be nearly as bad there as the terrible 2024, which is suggested by the last two monthly Euro seasonal outlooks.
 
GaWx said:
The latest Euro Weeklies, which go through July 13th, have mainly quiet in the Atlantic basin and near normal ACE in the E and W Pacific. If there are no TCs by July 13th, this would mean the quietest start in the Atlantic since 2009! Other years with no NS through July 13th since 1995 were 1998, 2000, 2002, and 2004.

I really wish I could say otherwise (I’d love to finally see a weak season), but I still expect an above normal season. The Atlantic tropics, though not nearly as warm as 2023-4, are still plenty warm enough and expected to continue that way. Also, we’re looking at a ~weak La Niña during ASO per RONI. That combo typically correlates to active seasons including for the corridor from the NE Caribbean through Bahamas, FL, SE US, and E Gulf though I’m still hoping it won’t be nearly as bad there as the terrible 2024, which is suggested by the last two monthly Euro seasonal outlooks.
Click to expand...
2004 didnt get going till July 31. Im not all that excited about early May or June starts.
 
GaWx said:
The latest Euro Weeklies, which go through July 13th, have mainly quiet in the Atlantic basin and near normal ACE in the E and W Pacific. If there are no TCs by July 13th, this would mean the quietest start in the Atlantic since 2009! Other years with no NS through July 13th since 1995 were 1998, 2000, 2002, and 2004.

I really wish I could say otherwise (I’d love to finally see a weak season), but I still expect an above normal season. The Atlantic tropics, though not nearly as warm as 2023-4, are still plenty warm enough and expected to continue that way. Also, we’re looking at a ~weak La Niña during ASO per RONI. That combo typically correlates to active seasons including for the corridor from the NE Caribbean through Bahamas, FL, SE US, and E Gulf though I’m still hoping it won’t be nearly as bad there as the terrible 2024, which is suggested by the last two monthly Euro seasonal outlooks.
Click to expand...

Yeah most seasons don't really start til after mid August anyway. Both Helene and Milton last year(and Ian and Michael) were after September 20th and even in October

Although we are overdue for a dead season tbh this last decade has been insane and not normal with all the big US landfalls

I don't see it happening this year right now with all the indicators but you never know

But I mean look at this. This has to end eventually gulf_coast_landfalls_major_since_2017_with_milton.png
 
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Brent said:
Yeah most seasons don't really start til after mid August anyway. Both Helene and Milton last year(and Ian and Michael) were after September 20th and even in October

Although we are overdue for a dead season tbh this last decade has been insane and not normal with all the big US landfalls

I don't see it happening this year right now with all the indicators but you never know

But I mean look at this. This has to end eventually View attachment 173096
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Or due to the changing climate it continues and only gets worse?
 
Shaggy said:
Or due to the changing climate it continues and only gets worse?
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i think the science is stilly murky and inconclusive on how climate change impacts atlantic seasons. seen some evidence warmer mid levels actually help stabilize the basin. seen some smart people theorize the peak may be shifting a little later (late september/october)

my point is, is that so many little features impact canes from shear to instability to incumbent longwave patterns, that the science on climate change impact isn't as simple as "warmer sst's make canes go boom"
 
Shaggy I'm sure you know this but, the climate never stops changing. There is only how fast does the climate change. Also, we have better tools (Not great tools) to track it now.
 
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Ross said:
i think the science is stilly murky and inconclusive on how climate change impacts atlantic seasons. seen some evidence warmer mid levels actually help stabilize the basin. seen some smart people theorize the peak may be shifting a little later (late september/october)

my point is, is that so many little features impact canes from shear to instability to incumbent longwave patterns, that the science on climate change impact isn't as simple as "warmer sst's make canes go boom"
Click to expand...

Yeah also it wasn't that long ago we had a totally dead August either which was almost unheard of in 120+ years of records

Nobody knows what's going to happen even a few weeks from now much less in September
 
Ross said:
i think the science is stilly murky and inconclusive on how climate change impacts atlantic seasons. seen some evidence warmer mid levels actually help stabilize the basin. seen some smart people theorize the peak may be shifting a little later (late september/october)

my point is, is that so many little features impact canes from shear to instability to incumbent longwave patterns, that the science on climate change impact isn't as simple as "warmer sst's make canes go boom"
Click to expand...

With the Arctic having warmed faster than the tropics, doesn’t that if anything actually slightly reduce Mother Nature’s need to redistribute heat from the tropics northward?
 
GaWx said:
With the Arctic having warmed faster than the tropics, doesn’t that if anything actually slightly reduce Mother Nature’s need to redistribute heat from the tropics northward?
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theoretically, answering this is beyond my paygrade lol. this is like, a thesis topic. off the top of the dome i would think hadley cell expansion/behavior (the large scale circulation that produces lift at the itcz/equator and deserts around 30 degrees in latitude) probably has more pertinent impacts for out little corner of the globe
 
LC

You could sum up weather in Africa by summarizing "Hot North; steamy/stormy Central; Hot South. Both the Saharan and Kalahari heat ridge complexes are quite strong, while the ITCZ shows waves and intense convection all the way from the Horn Of Africa west to the Cape Verde Islands. This looks like a very active hurricane season in the Atlantic Basin.
 
lexxnchloe said:
LC

You could sum up weather in Africa by summarizing "Hot North; steamy/stormy Central; Hot South. Both the Saharan and Kalahari heat ridge complexes are quite strong, while the ITCZ shows waves and intense convection all the way from the Horn Of Africa west to the Cape Verde Islands. This looks like a very active hurricane season in the Atlantic Basin.
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Right now and for the foreseeable future, conditons are not favorable for development in the Atlantic due in part to the Sarahan dust that stretches from Africa to the Carribean. Once this clears out I believe things will become active and we will have a busy hurricane season as we approach the months that are more climatologically favorable for development.
 
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GFS through 120…
8b924ad2f43eeb12278694f18cf9f585.jpg



Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
 
Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 AM EDT Mon Jun 23 2025

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of America:

1. Central Subtropical Atlantic (AL90):
Showers and thunderstorms continue to show signs of organization
overnight with an area of the low pressure located about 500 miles
east of Bermuda. Recent satellite-derived wind data also indicates
the system has a well-defined surface circulation with maximum
sustained winds of 30-35 mph. While environmental conditions are
only marginally favorable, only a small increase in organization and
persistence of the current shower and thunderstorm activity is
likely to result in the formation of a short-lived tropical
depression or storm, as soon as later today. By Tuesday, this system
is expected to encounter less favorable environmental conditions,
ending its opportunity for further development. Regardless of
development, the system is forecast to move northeastward at 5 to 10
mph, remaining over the open central Atlantic.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...70 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...70 percent.
 
GaWx said:
Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 AM EDT Mon Jun 23 2025

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of America:

1. Central Subtropical Atlantic (AL90):
Showers and thunderstorms continue to show signs of organization
overnight with an area of the low pressure located about 500 miles
east of Bermuda. Recent satellite-derived wind data also indicates
the system has a well-defined surface circulation with maximum
sustained winds of 30-35 mph. While environmental conditions are
only marginally favorable, only a small increase in organization and
persistence of the current shower and thunderstorm activity is
likely to result in the formation of a short-lived tropical
depression or storm, as soon as later today. By Tuesday, this system
is expected to encounter less favorable environmental conditions,
ending its opportunity for further development. Regardless of
development, the system is forecast to move northeastward at 5 to 10
mph, remaining over the open central Atlantic.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...70 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...70 percent.
Click to expand...
Now down to 60%
 
I'm gonna do @GaWx 's job and post possible Andrea's exact spots
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 90L ANALYSED POSITION : 33.0N 55.4W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL902025

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 23.06.2025 0 33.0N 55.4W 1018 27
0000UTC 24.06.2025 12 CEASED TRACKING
Click to expand...
 
Annnd Andrea's gonna form
GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 00UTC 24.06.2025

TROPICAL STORM 90L ANALYSED POSITION : 34.7N 52.8W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL902025

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
00UTC 24.06.2025 34.7N 52.8W WEAK
12UTC 24.06.2025 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH
Click to expand...
 
GaWx said:
The NHC raised chances back up some to 50% at 8AM due to persistent convection.
Click to expand...
Now up to 70%
1. Central Subtropical Atlantic (AL90):
Satellite images indicate that shower and thunderstorm activity
has become better organized in association with a small gale-force
low-pressure system located about 900 miles east-northeast of
Bermuda. This system will likely become a short-lived tropical
storm later today before more hostile environmental conditions end
its opportunity for development by this evening. The low is
forecast to move northeastward at around 15 to 20 mph while
remaining over the open central Atlantic. For additional
information, including gale warnings, please see High Seas
Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...70 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...70 percent.
Click to expand...
 
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