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Severe 2023 Spring Severe
- Thread starter SD
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Detective WX
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I mentioned in the Feb thread that we'll likely pay with a big severe wx outbreak this spring, especially if we transition into a Nino. 1932, 1957, 1974, 1998, 2008 and 2020 stick out with what we're currently going through.
BHS1975
Member
Friday looking good on the GFS.
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NWMSGuy
Member
Looks like the GFS may be advertising a Severe Risk for someone in the South next week.
Ten days away, but gotta really watch that low amp wave on GFS and Euro.
Psalm 148:8
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So last night overnight fizzled in Alabama.. for which I’m thankful… but a thunderless, unwarned tornado hit southwest LaGrange in Troup County GA where I live last night.. ( see SPC’s) modified storm reports.. approximately 4:40 am EST. Anyone got fancy radar history on this?? Or what happened???? Very freakish event to say the least.. several businesses damaged… FFC has no mention on their website, but when I talked to them this morning, they were sending a team to investigate.
Best I can do as far as help.
Here’s the 4:28am and 4:40am radar images. I don’t have velocity. Looks like there was an individual cell down there that sort of separated from the line
Psalm 148:8
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Thanks for the assist!!! I was shocked… no thunder.. tornados from 2 separate system to wreck our county… done!!! Repeat DONE with severe season here in Troup County!
Snowlover87
Member
we still have March, April, and May to go through. Those seem to be the biggest severe weather months.
Darklordsuperstorm
Member
Heard lots of chatter from various sources on the weather community that I trust. The consensus seems to point towards an active season. Time will tell. In the mean time I will enjoy my 80 degree Temps this week ?
tennessee storm
Member
Gulf waters are getting primed already , warmer than average since hardly any cold has reached the region. So rich gulf flow moisture won’t be problem
Darklordsuperstorm
Member
I don't think we're done seeing model runs like the Euro had this time last week for the most recent system. I wouldn't be totally shocked to see such runs verify this spring.
NWMSGuy
Member
SPC is already highlighting a risk area centered around the Arklamiss for Wednesday of next week. 0Z EURO Flash Density during this time period provided below:
NWMSGuy
Member
Avalanche
Member
We need the rain!!
Euro continues to advertise a strong but broad wave now in the 8-9 day range. Definitely got to watch out for waves like that in the upcoming pattern.
Even the NWS said something about the same in The extended.
The presence of subtropical ridging will remain fairly steady-state
through the rest of the period. This will support above average
temperatures as a result, though temperatures will be more mitigated
by the presence of a front passing through the area Friday morning.
The effects of this meandering front and a couple passing
perturbations on the northern periphery of the ridge will lead to a
chance for rain each day, though I don`t have any thunder mentioning
at this time. A stronger signal for more organized thunderstorm
potential appears on Mon/Tue, outside the official forecast period.
40/Sizemore
The presence of subtropical ridging will remain fairly steady-state
through the rest of the period. This will support above average
temperatures as a result, though temperatures will be more mitigated
by the presence of a front passing through the area Friday morning.
The effects of this meandering front and a couple passing
perturbations on the northern periphery of the ridge will lead to a
chance for rain each day, though I don`t have any thunder mentioning
at this time. A stronger signal for more organized thunderstorm
potential appears on Mon/Tue, outside the official forecast period.
40/Sizemore
Looks like an early season severe threat may be shaping up across parts of the plains states for Sunday evening. Already a day 5 30% area for parts of TX/OK/KS.
Brent
Member
Yeah this is the first time I've seen some mets here mention the outbreak word this year
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