Misc 2022-23 Fall/Winter Whamby Thread

[Oconeexman]

Summers are better in Montana

That's a fact and Wyoming...winters brutal tho

 

[Parker]

Well at least I didn’t ruin anymore pants today. Look at the positives!

 

[severestorm]

There has to be some feedback errors on this. Ive never seen a wall of high pressure like this depicts.

Thanks. Here’s the total snowfall, crazy! I adjusted the color table and the white strip is still 24”+. .. 950mb low!!!

View attachment 127142

 

[bouncycorn]

Thank you, it's still hard to dial in the actual SLP based on color scale but I assume around Culpepper VA, similar to the 18z GFS. Apologize if already shared but can you link any details/specs on documentation running in house. My assumption is mesoscale with some type of extension, you can take the reply to Whamby don't want to add clutter here.

View attachment 127143

I'll fix the color table so it goes over a larger range of values, but the frame minimum is on there above the color scale at the bottom.

It's a highly modified version of the open source WRF (most models are based off of wrf, such as HRRR before the latest upgrade, NAM12, NAM3, GRAF, RPM, etc)... most of the physics configurations are also custom and honed in for the southeastern US (custom local PBL, single moment NSSL-like microphysics, modified CAM sw/lw radiation). There's also AI integration which is part of the reason it takes so long to run. At each timestep, an AI analyzes the global grid and makes bias-corrections based on 20 years of analyzed GFS runs and observations. This version of the MMFS-R (regional) is a global model with a 12km nest over the eastern US (pictured) and the ability to add 4km and 1km nests as needed (usually done in closer range since they are more computationally expensive).

There is also an MMFS-H which is for hurricane applications.. completely different source code modifications and configurations for that one, it also has AI integration.

If you have any questions about anything specific, I'm happy to answer them. This has been in the works for about 10 years, since I was in high school and it was very low resolution (1 degree horizontal resolution) and was based on the CAM open source model.

 

[Ollie Williams]

I'll fix the color table so it goes over a larger range of values, but the frame minimum is on there above the color scale at the bottom.

It's a highly modified version of the open source WRF (most models are based off of wrf, such as HRRR before the latest upgrade, NAM12, NAM3, GRAF, RPM, etc)... most of the physics configurations are also custom and honed in for the southeastern US (custom local PBL, single moment NSSL-like microphysics, modified CAM sw/lw radiation). There's also AI integration which is part of the reason it takes so long to run. At each timestep, an AI analyzes the global grid and makes bias-corrections based on 20 years of analyzed GFS runs and observations. This version of the MMFS-R (regional) is a global model with a 12km nest over the eastern US (pictured) and the ability to add 4km and 1km nests as needed (usually done in closer range since they are more computationally expensive).

There is also an MMFS-H which is for hurricane applications.. completely different source code modifications and configurations for that one, it also has AI integration.

If you have any questions about anything specific, I'm happy to answer them. This has been in the works for about 10 years, since I was in high school and it was very low resolution (1 degree horizontal resolution) and was based on the CAM open source model.

Do you have any verification scores on how this stacks up against the other short-range models?

 

[bouncycorn]

Do you have any verification scores on how this stacks up against the other short-range models?

Tests on the current version of the MMFS-R were done at 120 hrs and 500mb heights.. it scored on par with UKMET, which was better than GFS and CMC but slightly worse than ECMWF.

 

[DadOfJax]

It's amazing to live in the deep south and hear this negativity..I guess this is just a carolina's place?

That’s what it has turned into for sure. Another Mid Atlantic forum with a “Southern” name…lol

 

[DadOfJax]

Is Huntsville really in the deep south ?

Yes

 

[Drizzle Snizzle]

That’s what it has turned into for sure. Another Mid Atlantic forum with a “Southern” name…lol

I think the Carolinas should have their own forum and then the rest of us should have our own.

 

[DadOfJax]

I think the Carolinas should have their own forum and then the rest of us should have our own.

There is one more geared for the South, but it lost all of its members from being over moderated…..

 

[Stevo24]

I have a serious question for those of you who actually know what’s kind of going on with this pattern. Have we lost our good pattern that was showing a few days ago? Or are the models just waffling back and forth as usual? It just feels like everything is getting pushed back as usual.

 

[Chazwin]

Yes

Ok I just looked at a map to make sure I’m right and Huntsville has almost the same exact latitude as Greenville-Spartanburg and is slightly north in latitude of Wilmington, and neither one of those are considered in the Deep South

 

[severestorm]

I have a serious question for those of you who actually know what’s kind of going on with this pattern. Have we lost our good pattern that was showing a few days ago? Or are the models just waffling back and forth as usual? It just feels like everything is getting pushed back as usual.

Models are not keying in on a Gulf Low anymore and rather a Colorado Low miller B solution.

 

[Chazwin]

I have a serious question for those of you who actually know what’s kind of going on with this pattern. Have we lost our good pattern that was showing a few days ago? Or are the models just waffling back and forth as usual? It just feels like everything is getting pushed back as usual.

IMHO, there’s been absolutely nothing getting pushed back. We’re still going into a good pattern, and yes there are still signals for a southeast winter storm. However like has been said, being in favorable pattern doesn’t guarantee anything.

 

[WeatherNC]

I'll fix the color table so it goes over a larger range of values, but the frame minimum is on there above the color scale at the bottom.

It's a highly modified version of the open source WRF (most models are based off of wrf, such as HRRR before the latest upgrade, NAM12, NAM3, GRAF, RPM, etc)... most of the physics configurations are also custom and honed in for the southeastern US (custom local PBL, single moment NSSL-like microphysics, modified CAM sw/lw radiation). There's also AI integration which is part of the reason it takes so long to run. At each timestep, an AI analyzes the global grid and makes bias-corrections based on 20 years of analyzed GFS runs and observations. This version of the MMFS-R (regional) is a global model with a 12km nest over the eastern US (pictured) and the ability to add 4km and 1km nests as needed (usually done in closer range since they are more computationally expensive).

There is also an MMFS-H which is for hurricane applications.. completely different source code modifications and configurations for that one, it also has AI integration.

If you have any questions about anything specific, I'm happy to answer them. This has been in the works for about 10 years, since I was in high school and it was very low resolution (1 degree horizontal resolution) and was based on the CAM open source model.

Essentially you have coded a custom mesoscale, CAM, similar to a tropical model? With semi custom & off the shelf GFS bias correction now being down automatically; AI? I know nothing about coding, nor weather models beyond the previous decade, really just want to affirm my understanding and you did it very well in your post, fingers crossed.

Almost like a DGEX+++ (looking at 3 generations beyond)

 

[jeremyt]

That’s what it has turned into for sure. Another Mid Atlantic forum with a “Southern” name…lol

So NC is the Mid Atlantic?

 

[LickWx]

That’s what it has turned into for sure. Another Mid Atlantic forum with a “Southern” name…lol

You better read up on your southern history if you dare to utter such blaspheme …. We literally invented the south.

 

[LickWx]

There is one more geared for the South, but it lost all of its members from being over moderated…..

If anything this forum is very very lax with moderation which is why I am still here and every banned member has had multiple rounds on here … the mods are the most laid back ever. I thank them every day for it , even meanie pants Mcmeanager mean faces @metwannabe @packfan98 ! Even they are very relaxed and cool lol

 

[bouncycorn]

Essentially you have coded a custom mesoscale, CAM, similar to a tropical model? With semi custom & off the shelf GFS bias correction now being down automatically; AI? I know nothing about coding, nor weather models beyond the previous decade, really just want to affirm my understanding and you did it very well in your post, fingers crossed.

Almost like a DGEX+++ (looking at 3 generations beyond)

CAM stands for Community Atmospheric Model in this case, not convection allowing model. It's an older model framework and I use their radiation scheme in the MMFS. DGEX was essentially an extended NAM, it was a north american regional mesoscale model that was fed by the GFS.. MMFS is different in that mmfs is a global model fed directly by observations and not just based over north America or fed by any other model. The tropical model is separate (there's MMFS-R and MMFS-H. two separate models coded differently). Hope all that makes sense. Thanks

 

[Thor]

Absolute garbage discussion on here about NC vs SE. The board exists due to regular posters analyzing the weather. If you guys want a broader discussion on other regions put in the work and don't go poof when the threat does. The regular posters do a great job at not being too imby with their posts