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Tropical 2021 hurricane season thread

Ensembles clearly showed two camps. One that turned OtS and the other dead west towards the US like Florence did. Will be interesting to watch the peak of the season unfold.
I was in Chsrleston for the non Florence event, when the Euro said it was coming to us.
 
Next weeks advertised MDR development IMO.is going to be very open to.wild swings on the models. The gfs op brings a wave off the coast further south starts to develop it then weakens it and shifts development off to a new wave exiting the coast that then quick recurves.

Meanwhile so far out to 156 on the gefs it has some members developing the first wave and tracking it more westward while some have the new wave that begins recurving.

Which one actually develops will dictate the track IMO.
 

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The spread is even more noticable later. Clearly two camps based on where the low forms along that monsoon trough off thenvoast of Africa next week.
 

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