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Tropical 2021 hurricane season thread

The next threat per 12Z Euro fwiw way out in the middle of the MDR: due to La Nina, potential systems like this one should be followed closely since they have less of a chance of either recurve or dissipation vs when in neutral ENSO or El Nino.

ecmop_12_h500_ta_h_0222.png
 
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The bad news (from the perspective of someone who wants nothing to do with it) is that numerous Euro ensemble members support the operational's genesis of that MDR wave. The good news once again is that a fish storm is very heavily favored fwiw. Caution is still advised, regardless, due to it being way out in fantasyland, the climo bro of La Nina, and the models sometimes being too eager to recurve:

ecmen_12_mslps_ta_h_0336.png
 
The bad news (from the perspective of someone who wants nothing to do with it) is that numerous Euro ensemble members support the operational's genesis of that MDR wave. The good news once again is that a fish storm is very heavily favored fwiw. Caution is still advised, regardless, due to it being way out in fantasyland, the climo bro of La Nina, and the models sometimes being too eager to recurve:

View attachment 89038
Yeah this isn't screaming OTS to me maybe enough of a weakness developing by D10 but boy this is close to troubleecmwf_uv850_vort_eatl_11.png
 
Euro has this a D10 it probably gets tugged OTS by the trough off the SE Canada coast north of bermuda but we are playing with fire scarecrow along the east coastView attachment 89080

Yeah that's pretty far north already. If it was a touch south I'd me more concerned about the trough tugging it north and then leaving it behind to turn back west like Isabel or Florence.
 
Yeah that's pretty far north already. If it was a touch south I'd me more concerned about the trough tugging it north and then leaving it behind to turn back west like Isabel or Florence.
Yeah the 12z euro yesterday was further south. With how much ridging we have seen the past 30 days it's hard to sell me on ots right now
 
Yeah the 12z euro yesterday was further south. With how much ridging we have seen the past 30 days it's hard to sell me on ots right now

There’s plenty of hope for ots. But with it being La Niña and this still being pretty far out in the models, keep in mind that the chances of ots or dissipation in the open ocean are lower than for other enso.
 
There’s plenty of hope for ots. But with it being La Niña and this still being pretty far out in the models, keep in mind that the chances of ots or dissipation in the open ocean are lower than for other enso.

GFS now onboard as well in that range but is awfully far north
 
Round 2?


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Yeah not to alarm anyone but the models are hinting at another storm in the same area

Edit yikes ? I guess if Texas escapes the first one it'll have another shot received_169855888587996.jpeg
 
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