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Misc 2021-22 Fall/Winter Whamby Thread

I think what we're missing is a true Miller A system, that has no mixing and the northern shield of precipitation is simply snow. I think that's how everyone in nc scores. We just never have them. Best we get is A/B hybrids amped up which tends to mix east. For whatever reason that's what we get.

Haven't caught up yet this morning on the threat, but yesterday it looked like this week is the best chance for one that we've seen in quite some time. I bet if we get a storm, it'll be east nc centric.
 
CaryWx said:
Yeah, having a hard time with this being modeled right when we have super cold air coming in. To be in the Triangle and have 850 warm nose issues or SER or whatever. Is this a low track matter? I cannot tell what of our usual culprit is going to be this time. That air is cold
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I'm not sure....5 days ago we were looking at a big snow event for our area and we know how that turned out. With the atlantic ridge trending stronger we will for sure mix...assuming there is an event.
 
I honestly not shocked by the trends, climo says we are far more likely to get a Miller B setup during a -EPO/+NAO, only thing is the +PNA which is more favorable for As
 
The blend maps posted don't look too bad for the Triangle. Matter of fact we're in the bullseye more or less. Only 4 more days to go. ?
 
KyloG said:
I'm not sure....5 days ago we were looking at a big snow event for our area and we know how that turned out. With the atlantic ridge trending stronger we will for sure mix...assuming there is an event.
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I can't for the life of me figure out why anyone in central NC wants phasing or anything southern stream related when there is no -nao. Keep the southern stream uninvolved or in the mix at the very end and we get a nice snow storm. Bring the southern stream into the mix and congrats Roanoke
 
I mean, if you could tell me that I'd get another 1/28/14, I'd happily take another 1/28/14. That storm busted on the low side in North Alabama and Georgia mostly because the north side of the precip got underestimated, you had winter weather verify deep in the south (edit: I think this was a system that brought snow to Florida) in this system despite the bust on the north side.

I'd be able to possibly get out some popcorn about potential traffic issues and see some snow myself.

Doesn't seem as if it'd be a case that is exactly the same though, as the mixing issues are already close.
 
SD said:
I can't for the life of me figure out why anyone in central NC wants phasing or anything southern stream related when there is no -nao. Keep the southern stream uninvolved or in the mix at the very end and we get a nice snow storm. Bring the southern stream into the mix and congrats Roanoke
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I’ve said this many times…big events never work for Raleigh. We need the little garbage 2-3” events.
 
Snowflowxxl said:
Atlanta hasn’t recorded over an inch of snow in 4 years, why are we trying to act like we are a snow capital ???????
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Isn't this the longest streak in recorded history ? I'm not sure why people are acting like it snows in Atlanta a lot. Atlanta is due for snow as much as anyone.
 
I will say I’m very happy I wasn’t home for yesterdays event. The NWS issued a winter weather advisory for me while people to my north and south got accumulating snow and my backyard didn’t receive a flake. That makes two events where we didn’t receive much of anything while others to our north received accumulating snow.


They say third times a charm, so maybe this weekend my backyard will score. Give me one more snow event and I’ll be ready for warmer weather as well.
 
Wow! Can’t believe the next system is already coming into NAM range! I need a break from this last one! I feel for the local Mets!


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Can’t wait for March warmth to be ruined by yet another incredible pacific pattern when positive AAM from random Future +EAMT gets deposited into the pacific jet and we get another big round of +PNA/-EPO and -NAO in March, we’re setting ourselves up badly for that, 2018 style 277E2F18-FAA2-4522-8834-C1EDB97E5A48.png
 
NoSnowATL said:
This was a small even for Georgia. Hopefully we can score in the next 1-2weeks.
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And I've got a feeling the next event will be small for Georgia too, with the biggest impacts yet again in the Carolinas. Seems like the biggest impacts are always either in the Carolinas or in North AL/TN.
 
Myfrotho704_ said:
Can’t wait for March warmth to be ruined by yet another incredible pacific pattern when positive AAM from random Future +EAMT gets deposited into the pacific jet and we get another big round of +PNA/-EPO and -NAO in March, we’re setting ourselves up badly for that, 2018 style View attachment 107208
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Cfs says here's your April wedge more miller b rains at leastcfs-monthly-all-avg-namer-t2m_c_anom_month_mostrecent-8771200.png
 
Myfrotho704_ said:
Can’t wait for March warmth to be ruined by yet another incredible pacific pattern when positive AAM from random Future +EAMT gets deposited into the pacific jet and we get another big round of +PNA/-EPO and -NAO in March, we’re setting ourselves up badly for that, 2018 style View attachment 107208
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I been saying March could be an interesting month around here! We may be ready for some cold after February though


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